1. The Southeast Pacific Climate
Cold SSTs, coastal upwelling
Cloud-topped ABLs
Influenced by and influential on remote climates (ENSO)
Unresolved issues in heat and nutrient budgets
Important links between clouds and aerosol
Poorly simulated by atmosphere-ocean GCMs

2. Clouds in climate models - change in low cloud amount for 2CO2
GFDL
Clouds in climate models - change in low cloud amount for 2CO2
CCM
model number
from Stephens (2005)

3. Clouds in Global Models Annual mean Control run Atmospheric models
ERBE
NCAR
GFDL
GMAO
-SWCF
(W m-2)
Clouds in Global Models Annual mean Control run Atmospheric models

4. CGCM Problems: NOAA CFS Model
CFS Errors
The CFS model has significant errors in the SEP
There is a meridional shift in ITCZ (top), a warm SST bias (middle) and insufficient stratocumulus cloud cover, (bottom)
These errors adversely affect the skill of CFS climate forecasts (ENSO).
What model developments are required to alleviate these errors?
Prec
SST
CLD

5. resolution of ~5m required to resolve inversion!
Why this Uncertainty?
resolution of ~5m required to resolve inversion!
Free-tropospheric T set by ITCZ
~12K! θe
2,000km
Talk about entrainment!
~1km
BL T set by local SST

6. Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation

7. The effect of low clouds on climate
SST
Stratus Cloud Amount (Warren)
Net CRF

8. Drizzle is important over the SEP

9. Global cloud droplet concentration (MODIS, annual mean 2001-2004)

10. Cloud Microphysical Variability Smelter locations MODIS Cloud Droplet
Concentration
(SON )

11. Pockets of Open Cells (POCs)
200 km
Pockets of Open Cells (POCs)

12. POC formation

13. The POC “breeding grounds”