1. Trends and Projections
Inmate Population
Trends and Projections
for
Platte County
Missouri
Bill Garnos
December 2018 Jail Consultant

2. Purpose Objective and independent assessment. Justification.
Transparency.
Documentation.
Provide a BASELINE for current facility planning.
Provide a BASELINE for master planning and criminal justice system planning.
Provide a DATA-DRIVEN means for public education, community support, and citizen engagement.

3. Report Organization Review of Past Jail Studies
Criminal Justice Statistical Indicators
Inmate Population Trends
Inmate Population Projections
Conclusion

4. Review of Past Jail Studies

5. Past Jail Studies

6. Past Jail Studies Evaluating Future Inmate Housing Needs
by Capt. Randall Pittman,
Platte Co. Sheriff’s Office, 2012
ADP will reach operational capacity by 2014, and rated capacity by 2017.
Recommended construction of “Futures” area for inmate housing.

7. Past Jail Studies
Feasibility Study / County Law Enforcement, Jail and Judicial Expansion
by Goldberg Group Architects (GGA), and Weber & Associates, 2014

8. 2014 GGA Study
I. Project Overview II. Assessment of Existing Jail Facility III. Feasibility Analysis of Jail Expansion Options IV. Staffing Plan for the Initial Startup and Operation of an Expanded Platte County Adult Detention Center V. Exhibits (Photos)

9. 2014 GGA Study
Platte County needs to expand their jail to accommodate the volume of prisoners that it currently processes and to provide adequate housing for the future growth of its daily inmate population. The current jail is reaching and exceeding capacity and will soon reach the point where it can no longer accommodate the volume of arrestees presented for incarceration without exceeding its rated capacity.

10. 2014 GGA Study
Two different versions of Population Growth Rate for Platte County.
Three different versions of Need for a Facility, with three different inmate population forecasts.
Revised 07/10/13.

11. 2014 GGA Study
GGA Forecast #1 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 288 inmates in 2032, requiring a jail capacity for 339. Platte County’s projected population growth and its impact on the jail population indicates a need for a 300 – 350 bed jail to accommodate the county’s need for jail space over the next 20 years ... .”

12. 2014 GGA Study
GGA Forecast #2 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 429 inmates in 2033, requiring a jail capacity for 505. [I]t is recommended that Platte County consider a jail facility that can accommodate 450 – 500 inmates.” GGA Forecast #3 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 542 inmates in 2033, requiring a jail capacity for 637.

13. 2014 GGA Study GGA Forecast #3 Need 637 Jail Beds GGA Forecast #2
20 Years
2033
294 – 542
Inmates
15 Years
2028
265 – 385
Inmates
Ten Years
2023
239 – 273
Inmates
Five Years
2018
173 – 194
Inmates
ADP

14. Past Jail Studies Report to the Platte County Commission
by the Platte County
Jail Committee, 2014

15. Past Jail Studies
1) There is no current need to justify the construction of new jail buildings or expanded facilities for housing inmates.
2) The Commission should engage the architects who designed the current facility as an independent expert. 
3) There should be no discussion with KCMO regarding a long term contract.
The Prosecutor offices will require attention.
5) The County should incur no new debt for expanding Futures or for construction and remodeling of administrative offices.
6) The initial expert reports on the jail expansion and county population projections should be discarded.

16. Criminal Justice Statistical Indicators Crime Arrests Criminal Case Filings Other Statistical Indicators

17. Criminal Case Filings in Circuit Court in Platte County
Felonies
Associate
Felonies
Misdemeanors

18. Inmate Population Trends Bookings Average Daily Population (ADP) High / Low Population Inmate Population by Gender

19. Average Daily Population (ADP)
Daily Counts ranged from 175 to 215 Inmates.
Average Daily Population (ADP) was 193 Inmates.

20. Inmate Population Trends State Inmates ICE Detainees Total Inmates

21. Inmate Population Trends State Inmates ICE Detainees Total Inmates

22. State Inmates — Bookings
Highest Month:
416 State Inmate
Bookings
2013 – 2018 Trend
2008 – 2018 Trend
Lowest Month:
223 State Inmate
Bookings
Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 350 state inmate bookings per month.

23. State Inmates — ADP 5-Year Trend Highest ADP: 181 State Inmates
Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 166 state inmates.
Lowest ADP:
69 State Inmates

24. Inmate Population Trends State Inmates ICE Detainees Total Inmates

25. ICE Detainees — Bookings
Highest Month:
112 ICE Bookings
Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 18 ICE bookings per month.
2013 – 2018 Trend
Lowest Months:
O ICE Bookings
2009 – 2018 Trend

26. ICE Detainees — ADP Highest ADP: 23 ICE Detainees
Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 18 ICE Detainees.
Lowest ADP:
O ICE Detainees

27. ICE Detainees — Revenue
ICE Detainees — ALOS
ICE Detainees — Revenue

28. Inmate Population Trends State Inmates ICE Detainees Total Inmates

29. Total Inmates — Bookings
Highest Month:
429 Total Bookings
2013 – 2018 Trend
2008 – 2018 Trend
Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 368 total bookings per month.
Lowest Month:
225 Total Bookings

30. Total Inmates — ADP 5-Year Trend Highest ADP: 194 Total Inmates
Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 184 Total Inmates.
Lowest ADP:
70 Total Inmates

31. Total Inmates — ADP

32. ADP by Gender Male Inmates Female Inmates

33. Average Daily Population by Gender
Since 2015, the Detention Center has averaged 81% male inmates and 19% female inmates.
2008 – 2018 Trend
Female
Inmates
Male
Inmates

34. Average Daily Population Male Inmates
5-Year Trend
Highest ADP:
159 Male Inmates
2008 – 2018 Trend
Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 151 Male Inmates.
Lowest ADP:
61 Male Inmates

35. Average Daily Population Female Inmates
Highest ADP:
46 Female Inmates
5-Year Trend
2008 – 2018 Trend
Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 33 Female Inmates.
Lowest ADP:
10 Female Inmates

36. High / Low Inmate Population

37. High / Low Inmate Population Range
Highest Population:
216 Total Inmates
High Trend
Low Trend
The Detention Center’s high (peak) population averages 11% over the ADP each month.
Lowest Population:
56 Total Inmates

38. High / Low Inmate Population Range
180 Beds
154 Beds

39. Inmate Population Projections County Population Inmate Population Projections Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements

40. Platte County Population
Current population was estimated at 101,187 in 2017.
Current
MARC
Projections
Historical
Census
Population

41. Inmate Population Projections
Not an exact science. No commonly accepted methodology for conducting inmate population projections.
Projections degrade over time. The further out the projections are made, the less reliable they become.
Long range projections should be used for long-term master planning and site planning.

42. Inmate Population Projections
Inmate projections are different than jail capacity requirements.
Actual inmate population fluctuates (zigzags) above and below the trendline.
Projections are primarily based on historical trends.
Inmate population projections are for facility planning purposes.

43. Inmate Population Projections
Linear ADP Trends — Projections based on trendlines through the County’s ADP of state inmates.
Rate of Incarceration (ROI) — Projections based on the correlation between the number of state inmates and the County’s population, applied to the County’s population projections.
Average Length of Stay (ALOS) — Projections based on the ALOS for state inmates, applied to the projected number of bookings for state inmates.

44. Inmate Population Projections
Linear ADP Trend Projections
Model 1A – 2018 ADP Trend Projections
Model 1B. 5-Year ADP Trend Projections
Rate of Incarceration (ROI) Projections
Model 2A Year Average ROI Projections
Model 2B. 5-Year Average ROI Projections
Model 2C. ROI Trend Projections
Average Length of Stay (ALOS) Projections
Model 3A Year ALOS Projections
Model 3B. 5-Year ALOS Projections
Model 3C. ALOS Trend Projections

45. Inmate Population Projection Models
Models 1B, 2C & 3C
Model 1A
Models 2A, 2B, 3A & 3B
Actual ADP

46. Inmate Population Projections
Reasons for selecting Model 1A to use as the baseline, for facility planning purposes:
Represents the approximate midpoint in the range of results from the eight forecasting models.
Two other key models (Models 2C and 3C) reached similar results.
The results from four models (Models 2A, 2B, 3A, and 3B) are unreasonably low, given other indicators and growth trends.
The highest results (Model 1B) were rejected as a baseline for planning purposes, but reflect the steep increase in the inmate population over the past five years.
Model 1A is based simply on the continuation of Platte County’s own actual state inmate population trend since 2008.

47. Baseline Inmate Population Projections
Ten Years
2028 ADP
241 State Inmates
Five Years
2023 ADP
202 State Inmates
Actual ADP

48. Rate of Incarceration (ROI)

49. Rate of Incarceration (ROI)
State Inmates per 1,000 County Population

50. Average Length of Stay (ALOS)

51. Average Length of Stay (ALOS)
Days

52. Inmate Population Projections
Baseline ADP projections:
202 state inmates in five years (by 2023);
241 state inmates in ten years (by 2028);
280 state inmates in 15 years (by 2033); and
319 state inmates in 20 years (by 2038).

53. Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements Total Jail Beds Needed “Capacity” of the Existing Jail Inmate Housing Shortfall

54. Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements
Peaking Factor — To accommodate routine fluctuations in the inmate population.
Since 2008, the highest (peak) inmate population each month exceeded the ADP for that month by an average of 11 percent.
Classification Factor — To allow for the separation of males and females, to separate inmates by security classification, and to allow for administrative and disciplinary segregation.

55. Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements
Baseline
ADP
Projections
Total
Jail Beds
Needed
Peaking
Factor
Classification
Factor + + =
“85 Percent Rule” ADP = 85% of Total Beds Needed

56. Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements
Inmates
Beds

57. “Capacity” of the Existing Jail

58. Inmate Housing Shortfall
Beds
Shortfall

59. Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements
Inmates
Beds
Shortfall

60. Forecast of Jail Capacity Requirements
Type of Jail Beds Needed
More high-risk offenders, with greater security requirements;
More inmates with long lengths of stay;
More inmates with medical and mental health issues;
More inmates with special needs, or who require special management; and
Growing need to keep certain inmates (or groups of inmates) separate.

61. Conclusion

62. Conclusion
The population of Platte County is growing rapidly. Over the 20 years from the 1990 to the 2010 Census, the population of Platte County increased by 54 percent. Current population is estimated at 101,000 people. Over the next two decades (from 2020 to 2040), the population of Platte County is expected to grow another 30 percent, to over 137,000 residents. As the County’s population grows, the demands on its criminal justice system — and its jail system — also grow.

63. Conclusion
Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 166 state inmates. The Detention Center has also been holding an ADP of 18 ICE detainees, which provide revenue for the County. This year, the Detention Center hit its highest monthly ADP, with 194 total inmates in June, and 193 total inmates in August and September. The Detention Center’s highest one-day inmate population was 216 inmates, which it hit in May 2017.

64. Conclusion It is estimated that Platte County will need a total of:
Five Years (2023) — 237 jail beds, to support an ADP of 202 state inmates;
Ten Years (2028) — 283 jail beds, to support an ADP of 241 state inmates;
15 Years (2033) — 330 jail beds, to support an ADP of 280 state inmates; and
20 Years (2038) — 376 jail beds, to support an ADP of 319 state inmates.

65. Conclusion
Subtracting 151 beds in the existing jail from the total number of jail beds needed, it is estimated that Platte County will have an inmate housing “shortfall” of:
86 jail beds in five years (2023);
132 jail beds in ten years (2028);
179 jail beds in 15 years (2033); and
225 jail beds in 20 years (2038).

66. Conclusion
Platte County is currently in the process of making some important, multi-million dollar, facility planning decisions. The goal of this study was to establish some reasonable jail capacity estimates for facility planning purposes. Ultimately, the County will need to decide how large any jail expansion or new jail facility should be — given all the historical data, emerging issues, and current projections. Hopefully, the graphs, data, trend analysis, and other information in this report will aid the County in its efforts to address the County’s growing jail population, and the appropriate size for any jail expansion or new jail facility.

67. Trends and Projections
Inmate Population
Trends and Projections
for
Platte County
Missouri