1. Concurrent Session B: Horticultural Outlook
201 Stocking Hall, 1:30 to 3:30 PM
Moderator: Bobbie Severson, Dyson School

2. Situation and Outlook Report of Wine, Grapes & Ornamentals
Topics and Speakers
Situation and Outlook Report for Fruits and Vegetables Brad Rickard, Associate Professor, Dyson School
Overview of the Use of Mushrooms in Food Service Giovanni Sogari, Visiting Scholar, Dyson School & 
Michele Lefebvre, Director, Nutritional Mgt, CU Dining
Terrorism and wine tourism: the recent case of France Florine Livat, Associate Professor, KEDGE, France
Situation and Outlook Report of Wine, Grapes & Ornamentals
Miguel Gomez, Associate Professor &
Jie Li, Research Associate, Dyson School

3. Situation and Outlook for
Fruits and Vegetables
Brad Rickard, Associate Professor
Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management
January 18, 2019

4. Overview of Fruit Crop Trends in Recent Years
Between 2014 and 2018 U.S. fruit producers experienced relatively high prices for many crops.
Over this time period we saw little variability in consumer prices for fruit crops, but we did observe some increase in consumer prices for fruits in 2018 relative to the other most recent years.

5. Index of fruits and tree nuts price received by growers

6. Consumer Price Index for fresh fruits in the U.S.

7. Situation Report for Apples in NYS and Elsewhere
Anticipated near-record 2018 apple harvest and large storage supplies is expected to dampen grower prices into 2019.
Increased domestic supplies will also drive down retail apple prices. BLS data on the CPI for apples shows lower prices than in previous years
In 2018 we saw some increase in production in MI and a decrease in WA (due to hot weather and sun damage), and overall up slightly in the U.S.
Production in NY has been relatively flat and was overall of very good quality in 2018

8. U.S. Apple Production, Fresh and Processing, 2000 - 2018

9. Eastern US apple production, 2015-2018

10. Western (and Total) US apple production, 2015-2018

11. Outlook Topic for Apple Production in the Northeast
Current rootstocks B9, M9 and M26 are susceptible to fire blight
Popular cultivars (Fuji, Gala, Honeycrisp) highly susceptible to fire blight
Current rootstocks also have issues with apple replant diseases that reduce yield
Bitter pit and other storage disorders cause low quality fruit and/or fruit being placed in lower grades

13. Fire Blight Over $100 million annual economic loss
When inoculated, probability of FB varies widely

14. Bitter Pit
Geneva Rootstocks have the capacity to strengthen nutrition absorption and decrease the probability of bitter pit
Bitter Pit is a significant problem for Honeycrisp and has caused losses of up to 75% or more in lost yields

15. Geneva Rootstock – NPV Results

17. Overview of Vegetable Crop Trends in Recent Years
In the nine states that comprise the Northeast region vegetable crops (not including potatoes) have been planted on approximately 110,000 acres with an annual total farm value of between $525 and $575 million relative to 2016.
Early data for 2018 suggest that prices and the value of production for cabbage and spinach will be up in 2018, and will be down for squash, cucumbers and sweet corn.
Potatoes are typically grown on an additional 80,000 acres in the Northeast with a total value of nearly $220 million.

18. Vegetable Crop Prices in the U.S. in 2017 and 2018

19. Vegetable Crop Values in the Northeast (Average 2016-18)

20. Outlook for Vegetable markets in 2018 and Beyond?
In the United States there has been a long-term decline in the average per capita consumption of vegetables; however, changes in consumption are not uniform across different vegetables and across market segments.
It has fallen substantially for potatoes and to a lesser extent for tomatoes, sweet corn and carrots
There has also been an increase in the demand for fresh vegetables and there are strong indicators that consumption in these categories will continue to increase over the next decade; for adults with higher levels of education and incomes above 185 percent of the poverty level, this increase is expected to be close to 3% per year.

22. The Pest and Disease Program received $80 M per year
Farm Bill Implications for Fruit and Vegetable markets in 2019 and Beyond?
In late 2018, the Agricultural Improvement Act (the Farm Bill) was introduced, and this renewed support for a series of provisions aimed to improve markets for U.S. fruits and vegetables.
Trade programs including the Market Access Program (MAP) received $200 million per year
The Pest and Disease Program received $80 M per year
The Food Insecurity and Nutrition Incentive Program will receive $285 million over five years.
The two specialty crop research programs (Block Grant Program and the Specialty Crop Research Initiative) will receive $160 million per year

24. Thank you! Questions or Comments? Brad Rickard 607.255.7417