1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Economy/Outlook
Sept. 24, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Economic Summary
Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

3. Economic Summary
Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

4. Reversal of Fortunes
Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

5. Concerns on Repayment
Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

6. Debt and Rates
Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

7. Modest Adjustment in Land Values
Source: Fed. Reserve, KC

8. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
181.3
3.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,827
241
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,002
-25
Imports 67 57 40 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,937
16,879
215
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,450
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,600
5,650 25
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,460
1,480
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,425
2,400
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,935
15,105
125
Ending Stocks
1,774 90
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.40
3.50
-0.10
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
Δ2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.6
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.1
52.8
1.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,693
107
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
395
-35
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,715
5,113 73
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,070 10
Seed & Residual
122
146
136
137 1
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,130
2,060
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,321
4,268 12
Ending Stocks
845 60
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.35
8.60
-0.30
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
55.0
50.1
46.0
47.8
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.6
52.7
46.3
47.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,062
2,309
1,741
1,877
Beg. Stocks
752
976
1,181
1,100
Imports
113
118
157
135
Total Supply
2,927
3,402
3,079
3,112
Food
957
949
964
970
Seed 67 61 64 62
Feed & Residual
149
161 48
120
Exports
778
1,051
901
1.025
Total Use
1,951
2,222
1,978
2,177
Ending Stocks
935
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.89
3.89
4.72
5.10
0.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

13. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

20. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

21. Current Corn Futures
Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

22. Current Soybean Futures
Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

23. Current Wheat Futures
Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

24. Current Cattle Futures
Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

25. Current Hog Futures
Source: CME Group, 9/21/2018

26. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: