1. Crop Outlook & Marketing Considerations
NW Iowa Farm Business Association Annual Meeting
Sheldon, Iowa
Mar. 25, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
96.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
163.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
14,530
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
632
Imports 8 28 29
125 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,894
15,187
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,548
4,550
5,400
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
4,675
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,387
1,435
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
825
1,500
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,262
13,010
Ending Stocks
2,177
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.10
4.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
44.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,405
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,204
3,545
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,615
1,660
Seed & Residual
110
130 91
119
135
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
1,500
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,080
3,295
Ending Stocks
250
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.30
10.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

7. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Advance Corn Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Corn Grind for Ethanol

12. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
But the industry still faces blend wall issues as fuel consumption has dropped with the economy and the E-10 market is basically full.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

13. Current Corn Futures
5.32
5.15
Source: CME Group, 3/22/2013

14. Current Soybean Futures
12.00
11.75
Source: CME Group, 3/22/2013

15. Corn Prices vs. Costs

16. Soy Prices vs. Costs

17. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS
We brought back a lot of acres in Can we hold them in 2013?
Source: USDA-NASS

18. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Weather was great for planting in 2012 (just not for producing). To hold acreage we will need great planting weather again.
Top: Planted in 2012
Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

20. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength or lack thereof
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
Futures
(3/22/13)
Corn
$7.10
$5.32
Soybeans
$14.30
$12.00
Risk management
Crop insurance
Price protection

21. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: