1. 2002-03 Hog Market Situation and Outlook
Presented by
John D. Lawrence
and Gary May
Iowa State University

4. Current Events Russian Poultry Ban Japanese Pork Safeguard Tariff
Biggest August slaughter in history
Supplies larger than expected. Why?
Plant capacity and Hormel announcement
Country of Origin Labeling

5. Meat Supply Year-To-Date Sept 27, 2002 Red meat production +3.4%
Beef +3.7%
Pork +3.2%
Poultry production +1.0%

6. Meat Demand Domestic demand steady-strong Export demand Jan-July
Beef +11.0%
Pork -1.0%
Broilers %
Russian poultry ban
In 2001 broiler exports to Russia equaled total US beef exports

10. Sept. 1 Hogs and Pigs Inventory
Mil Hd % Chg
All Hogs
Breeding Herd
Market Hogs
Under

11. Sept. 1 Hogs and Pigs Inventory
Mil Hd % Chg
Pig Crop     Mar-May
Jun-Aug
Farrowing Intentions   Sep-Nov
Dec-Feb

12. Up 16.5% June-August

17. Production and Price Forecast
Quarter
Pork Supply
Price Forecast
1 in 6 Price
Oct-Dec 4%
$27-30
$24.25
Jan-Mar
-1%
$35-38
$30.00
Apr-Jun
$37-40
$31.50
Jul-Sep
$42-45
$34.75

18. Factors to Watch Weekly slaughter Does the report track?
Plant capacity
Marketing weights
Sow slaughter
Feed costs

19. Web Site Tools Iowa Farm Outlook Historic Basis
Iowa Farm Outlook
Historic Basis
Future and Options Calculator
Futures and Options research