1. WG C – Groundwater Activity WGC-3 Risk Assessment (RA) and
Conceptual Models (CM)
Wouter GEVAERTS
Thomas TRACK
Dietmar MÜLLER

2. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) OBJECTIVES (Lisbon 2007)
Improved & Integrated Risk Assessment for Groundwater at River Basin Level
Update of characterisation under Art. 5 of the WFD (until 2013)
Supporting River Basin Management Planning (2nd cycle)
Adaptive management
‘lessons learnt’ by implementing the WFD during the last years!

3. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) AIM & SCOPE
Conceptual models
Sound system understanding
Understanding of impacts and measures
Risk Assessment
Generic elements, specific WFD-implementation
Reviewing risk assessment approaches
Refining procedures (including monitoring results)
Risk Management
Reducing risks, feasible measures at proportionate costs
Balancing cost-benefit-aspects
Public acceptance

4. Structure proposals Activity WGC-3 (IRAM)
Conceptual models (discussed in Llubljana, April 2008)
Risk Assessment
Risk Management
DG Leader meeting (Mechelen, July 2008)
discussion of merging the 3 lines of action
further procedure and work plan
result:
proposal for a revised work plan

5. WG C plenary (Paris, November 2008) proposal for a revised work plan
Activity WGC-3
WG C plenary (Paris, November 2008)
proposal for a revised work plan
either integrating 3 lines of action into one activity or
2009 focused effort Risk Assessment and Conceptual Modeling
Risk Management (techn. report)
as a separate working issue for 2010
specific topic on cost-benefit-analysing

6. Activity WGC-3 Working plan
2009:
2 separate drafting meetings
March: drafting group meeting (Vienna)
June, 29-30: Frankfurt
2 meetings in parallel to WG C plenary
27.04 Prague
14.10 Stockholm
draft “integrated risk assessment and adaptive management“ approved by end of the year

7. Activity WGC-3 State of play
DG meetings (March 10/11; April 27)
CONCEPTUAL MODEL
draft content revised
RISK ASSESSMENT
establishing a common understanding
references (e.g. technical report on groundwater risk assessment, IMPRESS & other guidance documents)

8. “regional aspects”: Art. 4 objectives of the WFD
Activity WGC-3
RISK ASSESSMENT
“regional aspects”: Art. 4 objectives of the WFD
“local aspects”: prevent and limit – GWD
Conceptual models
are tools and basis to understand GW-bodies systemically
bridge the process from risk assessment to risk management

9. 3 pre-requisites for an appropriate and successful pressures and impact analysis

10. Activity WGC-3 (IRAM) “Risk”: WFD & GWD citations
WFD: 26 references (incl. recitals and annexes)
prevent and limit (Guidance No 17)
priority substances
risk assessment (Art. 5 & Techn. reports 2003 & 2004)
chemical status (Guidance No 18 & No 15)
quantitative status (Guidance No 15)
environmental risk
DWPAs (Guidance No. 16)
trend assessment (Guidance No 18)
GWD: 6 references
Chemical status (Guidance No 18)

11. Guidance on Risk Assessment
very broad term, used in many disciplines, by science and policy
common understanding related to WFD & GWD
focus: WFD Annex II & article 4 objectives
prevent/limit inputs
good groundwater status (chemical + quantitative)
reverse upward trends
general demand: build on available materials
Most urgent needed: general framework

12. Risk Assessment vs. Status assessment12

13. Risk Assessment General considerations
forecast to the future
considering knowledge of previous planning circles
reviewing risk characterisations
reviewing monitoring data
considering recent and ongoing changes within the system (e.g. land use, precipitation)
to review monitoring strategy and measures
significance, confidence
uncertainty (... likelihood of ...)
tiered approach
availability and use of data

14. More specific assessments
Risk Assessment Tiered approaches
Increasing difficulty in deciding if body is at risk
(e.g. because its true condition is close to the good – moderate status boundary
Risk screening
Water bodies not at risk
Water bodies at risk
Water bodies needing further assessment to determine risk
More specific assessments
Water bodies not at risk
Water bodies at risk
Water bodies needing further assessment to determine risk
Being aware of uncertainty in decision making is going to be an important issue. The directive is explicit in this respect (Annex V sect 1.3) requiring adequate confidence and precision in the classification of the quality elements and that estimates of confidence and precision of results of monitoring programmes shall be provided in the river basin management plans.
Much of this will depend on the monitoring programmes adopted, particularly the frequency at which parameters are measured (I will say more on this in a moment)
Current quality is compared to a Reference condition to calculate a numeric EQR and error will be associated with both the Reference and the Observed condition. This error does not cancel, in fact it is closer to the sum of the errors and thus is is important to minimise the variability in the Reference condition.
In practice it is likely that we will have to assume that the reference condition is error free, but the point re-enforces the difficulties inherent in the approach.
Water bodies at risk
Water bodies not at risk
Detailed assessments 14

15. Guidance on Risk Assessment structure (1)
1. Introduction/Definition
Refer to Art 4, 5 and 7 WFD & Art 4, 5 and 6 GWD. (including link to the Nitrates Directive)
Purpose: guidance and support for 2nd cycle RBM planning (reporting on review of risk assessment due in 2013)
references to risk in WFD and GWD (linked to Annex)
screening and linking to other guidance documents and other WGs
2. Setting the frame (overarching context)
set the frame for receptors
role in RBMP

16. Guidance on Risk Assessment structure (2)
3. Risks
rather regional aspects:
Risk to failing good status. failing objectives of Art. 4 WFD
Risk of failing trend reversal
rather local aspects:
Risk of spreading
Risk of contamination (by a new activity) à then referring to prevent and limit objectives
significance regarding regional aspects
Screening and linking to other guidance papers
possibility to follow objectives for subchapters (?)
4. Info: 4D CM for use in RA and RM

17. WG C – Groundwater Activity WGC-3 Risk Assessment (RA) and
Conceptual Models (CM)
Wouter GEVAERTS
Thomas TRACK
Dietmar MÜLLER 17