1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Pella, Iowa
Feb. 11, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
Imports
160 36 32 50 10
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,382
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,315
5,300
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,209
5,225 25
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,370
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,650
-50
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,545
-25
Ending Stocks
1,837 35
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.60
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015 Δ
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,930
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,151
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,880
-10
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
131
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,690
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,701
Ending Stocks
450 10
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

14. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Current Corn Futures
3.71
3.61
3.54
Source: CME Group, 2/11/2016

17. Current Soybean Futures
8.66
8.45
8.48
Source: CME Group, 2/11/2016

18. 2015/16 Crop Margins

19. 2016/17 Crop Margins

20. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

21. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

22. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: