1. Market Cycles and Where the Market Is Now
Steve Schepman

2. Market Cycles

3. Indicators in the Economy and Markets

4. Indicators of Economic Downturns
Slower consumer spending
Inverted yield curve
Rising unemployment
Inflationary Pressure
Will value of money invested beat inflation?
Net present value high (risk-free rate, inflation, ect)
High interest rate, future value of earnings decrease

5. Qualitative Signs of Market Instability
Tense international relations
People start buying on credit
Assessment of health of economy and stock market- take into account if borrow
3. Rampant speculation: everybody thinks market will continue past growth

6. Quantitative Indicators of Future Volatility
NYSE Advance/Decline Line
Conference Board’s leading economic index
52 week highs decrease
Price of copper to price of gold

7. What these Indicators Say about Market Now

8. Consumer Confidence

9. Yield Curve
Short term loans become bad because become as expensive or more expensive than long term loans
This causes slowdown in businesses borrowing capital
Slowdown in economy- people sell investments
Short term loans become bad because become as expensive or more expensive than long term loans
This causes slowdown in businesses borrowing capital
Slowdown in economy- people sell investments
Fed pushes rate up during recession?
Trying to cushion growth

10. Unemployment Rate
Wage growth when unemployment low but creates inflation in the end
Minimum wage hikes- eventually inflation
Wage growth when unemployment low but creates inflation in the end
Minimum wage hikes- eventually inflation

11. NYSE A/D Line Red bar at end represents lower investor confidence
Follows presidential cycle
601- next meeting
Red bar at end represents lower investor confidence
Follows presidential cycle

12. Price of Copper to Price of Gold
Price of copper is indicator of where industrial growth is at and price of gold indicates who is saving to hedge against inflation, uncertainty and store the value
Use this ratio to get an idea of whether the economy is growing or slowing

13. Factors in Recent Market Decline
Financials: Deutsche Bank
Emerging markets
Trade war
Rising interest rates

14. Trade War Trump issues tariffs on agricultural and other goods (16B)
U.S chipmaker micron ordered to stop selling chips in China by China
At WTO conference, U.S accused China of stealing tech secrets from U.S
Tariffs continue between countries
Talks with chinese ambassadors
Talks cancelled and tweets by Trump
90 day delay of trade war
Arrest of Huwaii top executive

15. Conclusion
The market seems to be at its peak and approaching a decline period that will most likely turn into another recession towards the end of 2019 or in 2020

16. Citations https://www.longtermtrends.net/copper-gold-ratio/