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House Price Indices Laurs Nørlund Director – National Accounts, Prices and Key Indicators Eurostat - European Commission.

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Presentation on theme: "House Price Indices Laurs Nørlund Director – National Accounts, Prices and Key Indicators Eurostat - European Commission."— Presentation transcript:

1 House Price Indices Laurs Nørlund Director – National Accounts, Prices and Key Indicators Eurostat - European Commission

2 Housing in our life House Prices?

3 Need for real estate price statistics
G20 Conference of Senior Officials – March 2011 « next crisis will come from land prices … »

4 Real estate prices played a major role in the financial crisis - bubble and effects on sub-primes
but harmonised statistics on real estate prices (residential and commercial properties) were not available

5 Reaction of the official statistical community
Challenge Detect, assess and forecast real estate prices Timeliness and reliability Set up a system G-20 Data Gaps Initiative

6 national accounts < short-term business statistics <
Principal European Economic Indicators consumer prices < national accounts < short-term business statistics < labour market < external trade < housing indicators <

7 House Price Indices - HPIs
Changes in the HPIs measure housing inflation HPIs describe the price development of all residential properties purchased by households HPIs cover both newly built and existing properties

8 Challenges in measuring House Price Indices
Availability of data on dwelling purchases Prices based on transactions Properties are usually not sold very often

9 Challenges in measuring House Price Indices
Paris Dwelling characteristics: Type of dwelling Size Location

10 Challenges in measuring House Price Indices
Heterogeneity Virtually every dwelling is different In particular across Europe Need for quality adjustment

11 The answer: create a new official statistics
Methodological framework Pilot projects Legal framework Regular compilation

12 Methodological and legal frameworks
Methodology Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices Practical compilation manual Legislation

13 Compilation National HPI Administrative sources Land registers
Real estate agencies surveys Financial institutions Construction surveys Compilation

14 Methodology Country 1 Country 2 Country 3 Country 4 European HPI
National HPI Administrative sources Land registers Real estate agencies surveys Financial institutions Construction surveys National HPI Administrative sources Land registers Real estate agencies surveys Financial institutions Construction surveys

15 What is released? House price indices euro area EU Member States
Annual and quarterly growth rates Indices

16 House Price Indices Euro area and EU – 2010=100

17 Different dynamics – HPIs, 2010=100

18 Differences across countries

19 Who will use the new figures?
Markets EUROPEAN COMMISSION .. and citizens

20 Uses: Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure
Deflated HPI Nominal HPI divided by household final consumption deflator Alert threshold: +6%

21 Uses: links with other indicators

22 When? Quarterly releases
Member States transmit data to Eurostat within 90 days after the end of the reference quarter Figures will be released around T+95/100 days after the end of the reference quarter Pre-announced in the Euroindicators release calendar In 2013 2012Q4: 11/04 2013Q1: 11/07 2013Q2: 10/10

23 Future developments Breakdown in new and existing dwellings
House sales Handbook on Commercial Property Price Indicators

24 Thank you for your attention!

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