1. GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT ON OIL PRICES: Social, Political or Economic
DR. RABI BASTIA

2. THE DYNAMICS OF “PETRO-TECTONICS”
2014-Till Date
Period
Nov Mar. 1986
Nov Feb. 1991
Jul Feb. 2009
Oct till date
Reason
Increasing non-OPEC oil supplies (Alaska, Mexico, North Sea)
Operation “Desert Storm” and EIA emergency stock drawdown
Sell off of assets (including commodities) due to the 2008 financial crisis
Increasing non-OPEC oil supplies (shale oil from USA)
OPEC’s action
Raise production
Cut production
OPEC’s policy Objective
Protect market share rather than target price
Keep Oil market well supplied
Target a price range
Post-crash Oil Prices
Remained low for almost two decades
Returned to prespike levels
Reached precrash levels within two years
Projected to remain lower

3. TIME – A VERY SPECIAL BANK ACCOUNT
Waiting does not make a mountain smaller.

4. AMAZINGLY AWESOME!!! EV Festival in Geiranger, Norway.
Dec 2016: Norway celebrated the registration of its 100,000th electric car. Norway has 10% of all electric cars in the world and is planning to quadruple the fleet by By 2025 EV sales are to comprise 100% of the car market. Norway inspires other countries to implement similar measures, and we show the international automotive industry how to create consumer demand for electric cars.

5. CRISIS BREEDS INNOVATION

6. OIL & GAS: A MAJOR SHARE IN COMMODITY INVESTMENT
Source: Bloomberg

7. OIL PRICE ???? WHO IS TO BLAME

8. “Ideas Are Nobody’s Monopoly”
THINK AHEAD OF OTHERS
“Ideas Are Nobody’s Monopoly”
Unconventional oil suppliers are likely to continue to be significant players

9. BOOM-BUST CYCLE

10. IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE
Country impact may be offset by:
Importers may also Produce Crude Oil
Exporters have different fiscal condition
Strength of Dollar
Role of Subsidies in domestic market
Policies Promoting Conservation, Alternatives
Stimulates Economic Activity in Net Importing Countries
Hampers Economic Activity Net Exporting Countries

11. IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE
Russian Growth Cannot Offset Mature Field Decline
Latin America at risk
Russia crude and condensate production
Mexico, Brazil, Colombia production expansion at risk in low price environment
Venezuela, Ecuador political regimes at risk in a low price environment
Sanctions and low oil prices push back time frame for East Siberia and Arctic development
Meanwhile European Demand is Falling and Russian is Pivoting to Asia
Middle East: Decades of Instability
Iran vs Saudi Arabia
Shia vs. Sunni
ISIS vs Governing Regimes
Civil War in Syria
Civil War in Yemen

12. GOOD FOR INDIA?

13. IMPACT ON SERVICE SECTOR

14. GLOBAL CRUDE TRADE FLOWS ARE ADJUSTING

15. Creative Mind, Positive Thinking
Everybody can see
Only few can innovate….

17. THANK YOU