1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Dec. 19, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
92.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
178.9
176.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,626
14,930
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
1,781
Imports 67 57 36 45 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,934
16,811
16,751
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,298
5,500
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,605
5,600
5,700
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,480
1,490
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,438
2,450
2,425
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,793
15,030
15,190
Ending Stocks
1,571
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.60
3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Dec. reports 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.1
82.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
52.1
50.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,411
4,600
4,090
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438
955
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,734
5,063
5,070
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,080
2,075
Seed & Residual
122
146
112
128
127
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,129
1,900
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,107
4,277
Ending Stocks
793
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.33
8.60
8.75
Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Dec. reports 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

9. Arable land

11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. +12%
+4%
+10%
+16%
+12%
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

13. +12%
+4%
+10%
+16%
+12%
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

14. +9%
+4%
+11%
+11%
+6%
Data Source: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

15. +9%
+4%
+11%
+11%
+6%
Data Source: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

16. U.S. Meat Trade
Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

17. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Soybean Meal Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

24. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

25. Current Corn Futures
4.01
3.70
Source: CME Group, 12/18/2018

26. Current Soybean Futures
9.45
8.83
Source: CME Group, 12/18/2018

27. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

28. 2019/20 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

29. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

30. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

31. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:

33. Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

34. Data Source: USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

35. Pressure on Dairy Moving Forward
Exports are Good, but…
Shipping at lower prices
Tariffs
Larger Dairies Still Above COP, but…
Regional Differences Exist
Prices expected to be systemically lower for the next 2-3 years

36. LMIC Dairy Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (10/25/18)
Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC