1. APES 12/8
Grab a laptop and pull up your age structure homework on google classroom

3. Learning Target
I can describe the 4 stages of Demographic Transition and explain why they correlate to a certain age structure diagram.

4. Country Jigsaw Number off by 5’s
You will be assigned a country (U.S., Japan, Nigeria, India, China)
Compare your answers to the questions inside the box for your country
Choose a spokesperson for your group

5. Demographic Transition
Movement of a nation from high to low pop. growth as it develops economically:
Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high
Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high; growth rate rises
Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises; growth rate falls
Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative rate

6. Demographic Transition: Stages

7. Pop. Pyramids at Diff. Stages

8. Stage 1: Pre-Industrial
High birth rates, high (at times erratic) death rates, low growth rates
Stage for much of human history
No current countries

9. Stage 2: Transitional High birth rates, declining
death rates, rising growth rates
Improvements in sanitation
(water) and medicine
In developing countries since the 50s/60s
Much of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)

11. Demographic Trap Population Path of Most Less-Developed Countries
“Trapped” in Stage 2
Before 1970, these countries were poised to make transition thanks to economic growth
Since 1970, econ. growth has not kept pace with population
Downward spiral in standard of living

12. Demographic Fatigue
Lack of $$$ and ability to deal with natural disasters and disease
Possibility that countries could slip back into Stage 1

13. Stage 3: Industrial Decline of death rate, birth rate, and growth rate
Change in behavior:
Infant mortality decreases, birth control increases
Economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children)

15. Stage 4 & 5: Post-Industrial
Stage 4: low birth rates,
low death rates, low
growth rates
United States today
Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)
several countries of Europe today

18. Demographic Transition Activity
This is due next time!

19. Total Fertility Rate Total fertility rate (TFR)
The average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime (NOT per 1,000 people)
Most important indicator of pop. growth
Global average = 2.36 (down from 4.95 in 1950!)
Average in developed countries = 1.5
Average in developing countries = 3.8

20. Global TFR’s

21. Falling TFR’s don’t mean fewer people!
Falling rates of growth do not mean a decreasing population, but only that rates of increase are slowing

22. Replacement Fertility Rate
Replacement fertility rate (RFR)
The # of children a couple must have to replace themselves
Takes into account infant mortality and people who don’t reproduce
A rate of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates
Africa RFR = 2.5

23. Population Lag
When a country’s TFR changes due to education, disease, etc., it takes a generation for declining pop. growth to show up.
Why? The babies born before the rate declined still have to grow up and have babies of their own.

24. Factors that Influence TFR
Empowerment of women
Family planning programs
Poverty
HIV/AIDS
Key is to get women to stop having so many babies – and to feel like they don’t need to have as many children

25. The Int’l Conference on Pop. and Development
In 1994 Cairo, Egypt
179 nations called on all governments to offer universal access to reproductive health care within 20 years
Offer better education and health care and alleviate poverty, disease, and sexism

26. Poverty and The Environment
Exponential pop. growth leads to environmental damage because impoverished people are focused on survival.
Overpopulation in Africa has led to overgrazing of semi-arid lands/desertification.
Deforestation in the Amazon
Destruction of bamboo forests in China

27. Affluence and the Environment
Wealth and resource consumption can produce even more severe and far-reaching environmental impacts.
The richest 20% of the world’s people consumes 86% of its resources, and has > 80 times the income of the poorest 20%.

29. Measuring Impact of Affluence
Environmental Impact Equation
Credited to Paul Ehrlich, an ecologist (1970’s)
I = P x A x T
I= Total Impact
P= Population size
A= Affluence
T= Level of technology

30. IPAT(S) Equation: Why?
Population = individuals need space and resources
Affluence = greater per capita resource use
Technology = increased exploitation of resources
Sensitivity = how sensitive an area is to human pressure

31. Wednesday: A few more notes on fertility rates, IPAT
Then…open note quiz on Chapter 7!
10 MC Q’s and a half-FRQ