1. BREXIT: The likely road ahead
Aarti Shankar, senior policy analyst

2. BREXIT – A PROCESS, NOT AN EVENT
The short-term politics of Brexit in the UK
The future of UK-EU negotiations if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed
The macroeconomics of A No Deal Brexit
Medium-long term UK-EU trade relations

3. The short-term politics of Brexit
Ultimately, there are only three possible outcomes:
Leave with No Deal
Leave with a version of the Prime Minster’s Deal
Remain

4. The road to brexit

5. Source: European Commission 2017

6. Timeline of the negotiations post-article 50

7. Timeline of the negotiations post-article 50

8. the transition or the backstop?

9. the transition or the backstop?

10. the transition or the backstop?

11. Economics of Brexit: key variables
UK-EU trade agreement
UK immigration policies
UK global trade policy/performance
UK domestic regulatory policies
Future economic trajectory of the EU without the UK

12. OPEN EUROPE’S 2015 ESTIMATES OF THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT

14. THE MEDIUM-TERM ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF WTO TERMS DEAL (2018 ESTIMATES)

15. A spectrum of results

16. Putting this in perspective
Source: OBR, ‘Brexit and the OBR’s forecasts’ (October 2018)

17. Uk-eu trade
The EU’s Single Market is highly developed in goods and UK goods trade is orientated to the EU.
In 2016, despite the UK’s comparative advantage in services, 62% of our exports to the EU were goods.
48% of our goods exports go to the EU.
Key sectors for UK exports, including automobiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, computing, and electrical products, rely on complex European-wide supply chains facilitated by Single Market access.
These sectors alone make up almost half of UK goods trade with the EU and over 40% of goods exports to the EU.

19. What Does the future hold for UK & EU?
If WA passed, ‘Remain’ will become ‘Re-join’
UK-EU relationship likely to be cool for some time
Greater UK-EU divergence likely, future relationship will be dynamic and/or revisited periodically
EU will develop independently of the UK. Fundamental tensions within EU harder to ignore post-Brexit