1. What does it really mean?
Probability
What does it really mean?

2. Probability If I do this then what?
Probability looks at chances of an outcome
A measure of how likely it is that some event will occur
0-1
P(A)= probability of A or event

3. Probability cont. Looks at the chance of an outcome
If 2/10 college freshman are on academic probation after the first year then I know I have a 20% chance of not doing well and ending up on probation F N
Closer to the actual probability with larger sample size

4. Probability of an event P(event A)
P (event A) = total number of favorable
total number of outcomes
If on average 22 players on a team 64 score at least one touchdown a season, what is the probability of picking a student who has scored a touchdown

5. P(event A) This is coming in card games
If there are only 4 card hands that can beat the leaders cards then what is the probability that the event of you beating him will happen?

6. P(event A) cont….. P(not A) = 1 - P(A)
Sum of probabilities will always equal 1
Probability that an event will not occur is P(not A)

7. Statistical Experiment
Any random activity that results in a definite outcome
Flip a coin = heads or tails = 2 possible outcomes = sample space of 2

8. Probabilities are measured by:
Intuition
Relative frequency
Formula for equal likely outcomes

9. Come up with your own probability
Think about the topic
The chances of the outcome
Think about all of the possible outcomes

10. 2 Key formulas P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
For any events A and B
P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B) – P(A and B)

11. PAGE 174

12. Tree Diagram In a tennis match you have a 50% chance of winning.
If there are 4 rounds til the semis, draw a tree diagram expressing the probability of making the semis.

13. Multiplication rule
If you are purchasing four items, what is the total combination of items?
A. Item one has 6 choices
B. Item two has 2 choices
C. Item three has 3 choices
D. Item four has 9 choices

14. Problem
You have 6 schools to choose from (USC, UCLA, Pepperdine, UCSB, SDSU, Cal)
You have 5 degrees to choose from at each school (Business, Engineering, Education, Political Science, and Kinesiology)
You have 3 possible living situations (House, Apt, and Dorm)
What is the probability of P(pepperdine and Business and Apartment)?

15. Draw the Tree

16. Factorial Notation For a counting number n n!=n(n-1)(n-2)……..1
What is the factorial of 6 choices of jerseys to wear for practice and then wearing a different one the next game?

17. Counting rule for Permutations
n = number of total population
r = number of total people to be selected at one time
What is (P n, r) for a 12 member basketball team when you select 5 to start?