1. Climate + soil 2050-2080 Dr John Conway Royal Agricultural College
Principal lecturer, Earth systems science
Royal Agricultural College
Chairman, Agriculture Sector Group

2. We have a dynamic inter-related system
Sun
Climate
So …..
We have a dynamic inter-related system
Vegetation
Weathered material
Soil
Parent material
Geology

3. Climate questions…….. Climate change – real or imaginary?
Real – we’ve already noticed it!
Natural or man made?
Cause – increased Greenhouse gasses
Effect – warmer planet

4. The forecast…..
Spring
● Warmer by 1.0 to 2.0°C Rainfall similar to now
Summer
● Hotter by 3.5 to 5.5°C Drier by 30 to 45%
Autumn
● Warmer by 1.5 to 3.0°C Drier by 10%
Winter
● Milder by 2.0 to 3.0°C Wetter by 15 to 30%
Data & following slides from UKCIP02

5. Winter temperatures

6. Summer temperatures

7. Winter rainfall

8. Summer drought?

9. UKCIP09 predictions
the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.6ºC. .
the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.8ºC.
the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5ºC.

11. Climate not weather ….. A plea :
Focus on climate – the overall combined effect of all of these ….
(don’t forget cloud cover, humidity, wind speed, storms …..)

12. Guardian 15/5/07 – reporting French work