1. LAMAS Working Group 17-18 June 2015
Agenda Item 4.1 Seasonal adjustment of LFS main indicators

2. Current situation I

4. Current situation II Main indicators now
Corrected for some breaks before 2005;
Linear interpolations between spring quarters;
Not seasonally adjusted;
Different levels of detail for breakdowns;

5. Review of main indicators
Harmonize breakdowns and presentation on Eurostat website;
Improve (and publish) estimates between spring quarters;
Correct most important breaks also after 2005;
Seasonally adjust quarterly series.

7. Estimates - ARIMA modelling instead of linear interpolation

8. Estimates - ARIMA modelling instead of linear interpolation

9. Break correction Census breaks Level shift breaks
Implementation only once all re-weighted data is received;
Break is distributed linearly over complete time span between last census and last re-weighted data.
Level shift breaks
With available double data: based on difference;
Without available double data: based on comparison of trends before and after the break;

10. Seasonal adjustment Indirect adjustment (of more than 4000 series);
TRAMO/SEATS;
Partial concurrent adjustment: models/filters/outliers are determined once a year (after full year is available), parameters/factors re-estimated each quarter;

11. Implementation
First publication of series: end of 2015, incl back-estimates and seasonal adjustment;
Bilateral discussion with concerned countries about break corrections -> take into account any information available in NSIs;
Implement break corrections by country as soon as available, with updated estimates where necessary.