1. Early Warning System
Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department

2. ATTENDANCE MATTERS
Alternative programs excluded from the analysis due to fundamentally different attendance information; Some data compiled over 8 years (05-06 to 13-14)

3. ATTENDANCE AND GPA MATTERS
Alternative programs excluded from the analysis due to fundamentally different attendance information; Some data compiled over 8 years (05-06 to 13-14)

4. Initial RISK using attendance and GPA
<1.0 F D C B
4.0+ A
ATTENDANCE RATE
Less than 70%*
70% - 80%*
80% - 90%*
More than 90%*
* For elementary students, the cut-offs are 85%, 90%, and 92%

5. Early Warning System Retention Former dropout Credits vs Grade Level
Information on Attendance and Grades combined with:
Retention
Former dropout
Credits vs Grade Level
State/District Assessments
Out-of-school suspensions
To determine High, Medium, and Low Risk for Dropout

6. Almost 2/3 of dropouts are High Risk students,
FACTS for High Risk Students:
Almost 2/3 of dropouts are High Risk students,
despite being only 11% of All students
27 times more likely to dropout than Low Risk student
Only about 10% graduate if High Risk continues

7. Less than 8% meet standards on Math AMP
FACTS for High Risk Students:
Less than 8% meet standards on Math AMP
Average GPA is 1 letter grade lower than their peers
High Risk in Elementary  High Risk in Secondary
(over 50%)
Dropout rate can be cut in HALF with interventions

8. Dropout rates by Risk Risk level Dropout LOW MED HIGH Total 21245 5703
Risk level
Total
LOW
MED
HIGH
Dropout NO
Count
21245
5703
2992
29940
YES
181
271
804
1256
% of DROPS
14%
22%
64%
100%
DROPOUT RATE
0.8%
4.5%
21.2% 4%
21426
5974
3796
31196
% of TOTAL
69%
19%
11%
Aggregated across 5 years (10-11 to 14-15)

9. Graduation rates by Risk
974 possible graduates, 100 High Risk (10.3%), 321 Medium Risk (33%), and 553 Low Risk (56.8%)

10. High Risk Dropout Rate: SWD = 21.3% non-SWD = 21.1%
Dropout Rate by Groups and Risk:
Student with Disability Dropout Rate = 7.4%
Students without Disability Dropout Rate = 3.7%
High Risk Dropout Rate:
SWD = 21.3% non-SWD = 21.1%
Economic Disadvantage = 22% Non-ED = 20%
Limited English Proficient = 16% Non-LEP = 21.5%
Caucasian = 20.9%
African-American = 17.8%
Hispanic = 19.6%
Asian/PI = 20%
AK Native/American Indian = 23%

11. Dropout Rates by Service
Interventions with High Risk students lead to:
Comparison group (No intervention) = 21.1%
Treatment group (Intervention) = 10.8%
“24+ contacts” group = 7%
Early Warning System is a GAME CHANGER

12. Grades 7-12 Dropout Rates 05 to 15

13. Graduation success program ended, however
Early Warning System still in operation
Tidbits guide to staff
List of students sent to school principals

14. School Input on Early Warning Systems
28 administrators, counselors, support staff, and teachers
21 schools
Asked 6 questions: School, Role, Staff involved, interventions used, challenges, suggestions, final thoughts

15. School Input Survey Question 3
Who monitors the risk levels at your school? Teachers/counselors?
Primary staff involved are counselors & prevention/intervention specialists
Staff can view risk levels in Powerschool

16. School Input Survey Question 4
What interventions are provided for High Risk Students?
Parental Contact
Counseling
After-school
1-to-1 connection with support staff
RTI for academic support
Programs: Special Ed., ANE, ELL, etc

17. School Input Survey Question 5
What do you perceive as the biggest challenge for serving High Risk Students?
Time and Resources
Lack of parental involvement
Attendance
Attendance – motivation, and lack of support from parents (especially if in Elementary)

18. School Input Survey Question 6
What suggestions do you have for improving the model in identifying low, medium, and high risk of dropout?
None (most common response)
Use MAP scores
School-based referral process
Other suggestions not related to model (considered for question 7) – Schools can prioritize students for services

19. School Input Survey Question 7
What else, if anything, would you like to add?
More time and resources
More professional development for staff
More support
More parental involvement
Presented to various groups (student achievement focus group, all principals, and soon ANE)

20. Graduation and Dropout Ratesto
Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department

21. 2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard
Dropout rates cannot be used to calculate graduation rates (accurately) ; statewide dropout results unavailable
Big 4 includes 4 other largest districts: Anchorage, Juneau, Kenai, and Mat-Su; Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research

22. 2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard
* - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity
Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient

23. 2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard
* - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity
Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient

24. 2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard
Dropout rates cannot be used to calculate graduation rates (accurately) ; statewide dropout results unavailable
Big 4 includes 4 other largest districts: Anchorage, Juneau, Kenai, and Mat-Su; Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research

25. 2014-2015 2014-2015 Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
Dropout/Graduation Rate Dashboard
* - Group includes students that identified an additional race or ethnicity
Dashboard prepared by Ellis Ott, Ph.D., Research & Accountability Department: PI = Pacific Islander, ED= Economically Disadvantaged, SWD = Students with Disabilities, LEP = Limited English Proficient