1. Public finances
Christine Frayne

2. Current budget: total change
£billion
Budget 2006 –7 +1 +7
+10
+12
Higher spending
–2½
–3½ –3 –4
Lower North Sea revenue –0 –2 –1
Other revenue changes +0
–4½ –5
Total (no measures)
–8½
–5½ +2
Higher trend growth
+1½ +3
+4½ +6
PBR measures
+2½
Current budget –8 +4
Source: HM Treasury ; IFS

3. Current budget: total change
£billion
Budget 2006 –7 +1 +7
+10
+12
Higher spending
–2½
–3½ –3 –4
Lower North Sea revenue –0 –2 –1
Other revenue changes +0
–4½ –5
Total (no measures)
–8½
–5½ +2
Higher trend growth
+1½ +3
+4½ +6
PBR measures
+2½
Current budget –8 +4
Source: HM Treasury ; IFS

4. Current budget: total change
£billion
Budget 2006 –7 +1 +7
+10
+12
Higher spending
–2½
–3½ –3 –4
Lower North Sea revenue –0 –2 –1
Other revenue changes +0
–4½ –5
Total (no measures)
–8½
–5½ +2
Higher trend growth
+1½ +3
+4½ +6
PBR measures
+2½
Current budget –8 +4
Source: HM Treasury ; IFS

5. Current budget: total change
£billion
Budget 2006 –7 +1 +7
+10
+12
Higher spending
–2½
–3½ –3 –4
Lower North Sea revenue –0 –2 –1
Other revenue changes +0
–4½ –5
Total (no measures)
–8½
–5½ +2
Higher trend growth
+1½ +3
+4½ +6
PBR measures
+2½
Current budget –8 +4
Source: HM Treasury ; IFS

6. Current budget: total change
£billion
Budget 2006 –7 +1 +7
+10
+12
Higher spending
–2½
–3½ –3 –4
Lower North Sea revenue –0 –2 –1
Other revenue changes +0
–4½ –5
Total (no measures)
–8½
–5½ +2
Higher trend growth
+1½ +3
+4½ +6
PBR measures
+2½
Current budget –8 +4
Source: HM Treasury ; IFS

7. Revenues: new measures
£billion
2006–07
2007–08
2008–09
2009–10
Air passenger duty
+0.2
+1.0
+1.1
+1.2
Fuel duty
–0.2
+0.0
‘Avoidance’ and other
Total
+2.2
+2.3
Source: HM Treasury

8. Current budget: total change
£billion
Budget 2006 –7 +1 +7
+10
+12
Higher spending
–2½
–3½ –3 –4
Lower North Sea revenue –0 –2 –1
Other revenue changes +0
–4½ –5
Total (no measures)
–8½
–5½ +2
Higher trend growth
+1½ +3
+4½ +6
PBR measures
+2½
Current budget –8 +4
Source: HM Treasury ; IFS

9. Structural current budget balances
Source: HM Treasury

10. A seven year cycle? Budget 2005: 1999–00 to 2005–06
Source: HM Treasury

11. A twelve year cycle? Budget 2005: 1999–00 to 2005–06
Source: HM Treasury

12. A ten year cycle? Budget 2005: 1999–00 to 2005–06
PBR 2006: 1997–98 to 2006–07?
Source: HM Treasury

13. Current budget balance
Current cycle total =
0.6% of GDP or £7.8bn
Source: HM Treasury

14. Current budget balance
Next cycle
Source: HM Treasury

15. Monthly current budget surplus
Source: ONS ; HM Treasury

16. Receipts on track
Growth in net taxes and social security contributions in 2006–07
Source: HM Treasury

17. Current spending growth to slow?
Growth in central government current spending,
(including depreciation) in 2006–07
Source: HM Treasury

18. Spending in November–March
Source: HM Treasury

19. Spending in November–March
Source: HM Treasury

20. Spending in November–March
Source: HM Treasury

21. Will the investment rule be met?
Source: HM Treasury; IFS

22. Will the investment rule be met?
Source: HM Treasury; IFS

23. Debt could exceed 40%
50/50 chance
Source: HM Treasury; IFS