1. High Impact Weather Emerging challenge identified at CASXVI
Mariane DIOP KANE
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

2. I. Recap of PRECAS High impact weather project by S. Jones
few examples of high impact weather related to urban floods
Achievements of thorpex:
Major international field programs, TIGGE Operational EPS data used by research community, YOTC
• Increased knowledge of processes and predictability associated with High Impact Weather Events
• Improved forecasts for such events on synoptic scales from days to about two weeks
• Advanced research on global observing and data assimilation systems and of adaptive observations (Campaigns, DTS)
•Fostered research on EPS and their usage
• Enhanced cooperation between operational and academic research communities
• First attempt to socio‐economic research applications (SERA)
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

3. what thorpex did not do
• address shorter time‐ and space scales important for impact of severe weather events
•investigate role of model errors and nonlinear error growth
•focus on verification
•consider how to link High Impact Weather events to hazards
•consider how to meet requirements for applications
• investigate how to cover future needs of WMO members under processes of urbanisation or a changing climate
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

4. Need to capitalise on these advances New project
Objective: “Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications”
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

5. Benefit:
• Shaped by needs for applications, assessed through communication and interaction with stakeholders
•Focus on future needs of WMO members for decreasing vulnerability to High Impact Weather by considering urbanisation, increasing population, demographic changes, ……..
• Incorporate and foster advances in new predictive capability (e.g. cloud resolving ensembles)
• Focus on predictive time scales of minutes to two‐weeks, build upon THORPEX to improve warnings on High Impact weather events
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

6. Lake Victoria projects and SWFDP by P. Maniha 4 components:
W. Lang adressed the challenges for forecasters in the 21st century in a changing climate, risks and media with too much data
Lake Victoria projects and SWFDP by P. Maniha
4 components:
- nowcast system,
- SWFDP,
- field project
- capacity building
interconnected with 3 WMO entities
- SWFDP recommended by EC
- HYVIC, a GEWEX hydroclimate project
- WWRP lake Victoria
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

7. CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

8. CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

9. II. CAS summary/recommendations
Accelerated and focused research required especially at local scales
WWRP to coordinate the activities with WCRP, GFCS, relevant commissions, regional associations and appropriate WMO prog
WWRP and WCRP to prepare scientific studies on the impact of CC on high impact weather events
High priority to research into realizing the potential of coupled systems with appropriate observational capability for initialisation
WWRP to contribute to developing user oriented verification indices for high imapcts weather events
Draft of High Impact HIWeather project as post-Thorpex legacy
Importance to involve operational forecasters in the HIWeather project and predicting hydrological consequences
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

10. WWRP to refine the HIWeather project to ensure that
WWRP to promote research in the prediction of the societal impacts of the high impacts weather events
WWRP to refine the HIWeather project to ensure that
- members needs are fully considered
- the link with DRR is strong
- cooperation between the academic and the operational community continues
- the project is established in a similar manner as PPP and S2S with a resolution to establish a trust fund and an internatinal coordination office
members requested to support the project and make expertise and resources available to effectively develop and implement the project
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

11. III. CAS recommendations
Post-THORPEX activities
the working group on data assimilation and observing systems and the working on Predictability, dynamics and ensemble forecasting be established beginning 2015 under WWRP and funded on regular basis
the activities of the current THORPEX regional committees be continued under WWRP after the end of THORPEX, if the participating regional members decide to continue on a self-organizing and self-funded basis, in collaboration with the regional associations, the WWRP working groups and projects, including the three THORPEX legacy projects, research and development projects and forecast demonstration projects
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014

12. THORPEX legacy projects work together to
- to coordinate the respective roles of the projects in areas of common interest and
- to share the results, techniques and accomplishments of the projects
the executive management oversight of the THORPEX legacy project trust funds be provided by the CAS MG
CASMG9, Geneva, April 2014