1. Grain Market Trends and Outlook
NE Iowa Research and Demonstration Farm Fall Field Day
Nashua, Iowa
Aug. 19, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,686
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,772
Imports 29
160 36 30
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,477
15,488
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,034
5,300
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,250
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,369
1,355
1,375
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,850
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,705
13,775
Ending Stocks
1,713
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.65
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
84.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,916
Beg. Stocks
215
169
141 92
240
Imports 16 41 72 30
Total Supply
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,091
4,186
Crush
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,845
1,860
Seed & Residual 88
105 97
181
132
Exports
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,825
1,725
Total Use
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,851
3,717
Ending Stocks
470
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.05
9.15
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Early Corn Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Early Soy Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

18. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

19. Corn Grind for Ethanol

20. Ethanol Stocks
Source: EIA

21. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

22. Current Corn Futures
3.80
3.57
Source: CME Group, 8/18/2015

23. Current Soybean Futures
8.60
8.49
Source: CME Group, 8/18/2015

24. 2014/15 Crop Margins

25. 2015/16 Crop Margins

26. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Quarterly stocks report showed strong demand
But exports look weaker as dollar strengthens
Market is debating whether this year’s rain makes grain
Negative margins for crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(8/18/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.65
$3.57
$3.80
Soybeans
$10.05
$9.15
$8.60
$8.49

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: