1. Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends
House Committee on Public Health
February 23, 2011
Austin, TX
Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

2. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2010
Population*
2010
Numerical
Change
Percent
United States
281,424,602
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.

3. Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010
Population increase for
Texas was 20.6%
during this period
This map demonstrates the percent change in population over a ten year period. Percent change is one indicator of the speed of population change but is not always an indicator of the absolute change in numbers. For example, county A with 100 people added 100 people, and has a 100% increase. Meanwhile county B with 1,000 people added 100 people and has a 10% increase. County A is growing at a more rapid rate than county B, but in terms of total numbers, they grew by the same amount.
The State of Texas is estimated to have grown by 20.6% between 2000 and 2010.
The darker blue colors on this map indicate counties with greater percentage change. The counties that are shaded in tan mostly experienced negative change, or population decline. Thus, many of the more rural, less populated counties have experienced declines in population over the past ten years. Most counties experienced increases within 10% to 25%, while a smaller number of counties surrounding urbanized areas experienced significant growth beyond 25%.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts

4. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
Percent Change Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
Percent
1950
7,711,194 --
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
1,754,652
113,831
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1,402,683
214,370
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
1,260,794
1,771,667
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
1,815,670
941,649
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
1,919,281
1,946,029
22.8
49.65
50.35
2009
24,782,302
3,930,484
2,124,124
1,781,785
18.8
54.04
45.33
* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.

5. Estimated Number and Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
White
Hispanic
Black
Other
Total
Net domestic migration
Number of migrants
371,150
238,866
195,024
43,663
848,702
Percent of Row Total
44%
28%
23% 5%
International migration
224,820
469,591
73,140
165,532
933,083
24%
50% 8%
18%
595,970
708,457
268,163
209,195
1,781,785
33%
40%
15%
12%
 52% of all migrants were international
This table presents the estimated number and percent of migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by race/ethnicity and type of migrant (domestic and international). The majority of domestic migrants to Texas were non-Hispanic Anglo (White), followed by persons of Hispanic descent and non-Hispanic African Americans (Blacks). Persons of Hispanic descent made up about half of all international migrants to Texas during this period, followed by non-Hispanic Anglo persons. More than half of the population change attributable to migration in Texas over this period is attributable to international migration. One-third (1/3) of the population growth attributable to all migration over this period was from non-Hispanic Anglo persons and the balance (2/3) was from persons of Hispanic, African American, and Other (non-Anglo) descent.
67% of all migrants
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

6. Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Population by State of Residence: January 2009 and 2000
The question of unauthorized migration often arises in the context of discussing migration in Texas. The Department of Homeland Security estimates that there were approximately 1.68 million unauthorized migrants residing in Texas in This number may have declined some because of the downturn in the economy. Texas is second to California in terms of number of unauthorized migrants.
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

7. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other.
In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census count

8. Estimate percent non-Hispanic Anglo and Hispanic by County, 2009
In examining racial and ethnic geographic distribution, these maps demonstrate the percent of the population of each county that is Anglo (on the left) and Hispanic (on the right). Most counties in the State are at least 50% Anglo. Counties on the southern border and far west Texas tend to have populations that are less than 50% Anglo and these tend to be more than 50% Hispanic. Few counties have less than 10% of their population composed of persons of Hispanic descent.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

9. Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.

10. Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.

11. Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts and Texas Medical Board (physicians).

12. Change in Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2000-2010
This map demonstrates changes in the number of physicians per 1,000 population over the decade. Green counties experienced fewer physicians per population over the decade (about 90 counties). Blue counties are those that experienced an increase in the number of physicians per 1,000 population over the decade (144). There were 20 counties that did not change in the number of physicians per population over the decade. These were counties that did not have any physicians.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts and Texas Medical Board (physicians).

13. Metro & Border Status for Counties, 2009
Physicians per 100,000 by
Metro & Border Status for Counties, 2009
Estimates of physicians per 100,000 by metropolitan and border status indicate the availability of physicians is greatest in non-border metropolitan areas and least in non-metropolitan border counties.
Sources: Census 2009 Estimates Department of State Health Services, Health Professions Resource Center Database

14. Physicians in Direct Patient Care, 2004 and 2009
Increase
Percent
Primary Care
15,374
16,830
1,456
9.6
Specialist
19,558
22,544
2,986
15.3
Total
34,932
39,374
4,442
12.7
Population (Millions)
22.4
24.8
2.4
10.5
The number of specialist physicians appears to be growing faster than the State’s Population. The number of primary care physicians is not.
Source: Tabulation of Texas Medical Board, Physician Licensure Database; Database maintained and supplied by Department of State Health Services, Center for Health Statistics, Health Professions Resource Center

15. % Health Insurance Coverage by Ethnic
Group and Type, Texas, 2008
Non-Hispanic Anglos in Texas were most likely to have private health insurance in Latinos were least likely to have health insurance and most likely to not be insured.
Source: American Community Survey Microdata, 2008

16. % Health Insurance Coverage by Immigrant Status & Type, Texas, 2008
Non-citizens were least likely to be insured in 2008.
Source: American Community Survey Microdata, 2008

17. Teen Birth Rate by State, 2006
Rank
State
Birth rate per 1,000 women ages 15-19 1
Mississippi
68.4 2
New Mexico
64.1 3
Texas
63.1 4
Arkansas
62.3 5
Arizona 62 6
Oklahoma
59.6 7
Nevada
55.8 8
Tennessee
54.7 9
Kentucky
54.6 10
Georgia
54.2 11
Louisiana
53.9 12
Alabama
53.5
Texas had the 3rd highest teen birth rate in 2006.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

18. Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2009 Estimated
The ages structure of many of the more rural counties are becoming older compared to more urban counties.

19. Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimate
While many of the urban counties have smaller percentages of their population in the older ages, the actual numbers of people aged 65+ are increasingly concentrated in urban counties and the south border.

20. Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008
Data on this map about physicians licensed to practice in Texas are from the Texas Medical Board. Some rural counties do not have any practicing physicians. The more urban counties appear to have relatively high ratios of physicians to population aged 65+.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2008Population Estimate (population), and Texas Medical Board (physicians).

21. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The and scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth. Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow.
Year
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

22. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040
The migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , Migration Scenario

23. Projection of Ethnicity of Texas Population Aged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040
Currently the racial and ethnic make-up of the population aged 65+ is largely non-Hispanic White, though this percentage is expected to decline over the coming decades. The second largest racial/ethnic group among those aged 65+ are those of Hispanic descent. The Hispanic population older than 65 years is expected to increase over the coming decades and at some point, will likely exceed the older population of the non-Hispanic Whites population.
Source: Texas State Data Center, Projection Scenario

24. Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
< 11.9
12.0 – 14.9
15.0 – 19.9
20.0 or more
These two maps demonstrate the projected shift in the age structure of Texas at the county level. The age-structure in many counties in Texas will become older over the coming decades. The urban counties and the border counties will become older but not to the same extent as many of the more rural counties.
2000
2040

25. Projected Growth of the 65+ Population Reporting a Self-Care Limitation, 2000 to 2040, Assuming Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability
Applying rates of self-care limitations to the projected population aged 65 years and older indicates a growing number of persons with self-care limitations in the future.
Source: Office of the State Demographer, Projection Scenario

26. Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Applying current rates of obesity to the projected population in Texas indicates that obesity is likely to become a more significant issue in the State.
Source: Texas State Data Center Projections

27. Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040
Projected persons with diabetes
The projected number of cases of diabetes in Texas suggests that Texas may be entering a period of sustained and significant growth in the number of diabetes cases.
Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Population Projections, Migration Scenario

28. Demographics & Destiny
Texas is growing, with more people being added than in any other state and resulting in 4 additional seats to our representation in the U.S. Congress. Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade. Texas is becoming more diverse; much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population. The aging population in Texas is also growing. Issues relevant to this trend are concerns about increased morbidity associated with obesity among aging persons, access to health care, and transportation. With a growing and more diverse population, Texas is likely to experience significant increases in the number of obese persons, and the number of persons with diabetes.

29. Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) or (210) Website:
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.