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Protecting our Health from Professionals Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health
Chapter 16: Public Health Adaptation to the Health Risks of Climate Change
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Adaptation and Mitigation
Actions taken by individuals, institutions, corporate sector and governments to address the risks of climate change directly or indirectly through addressing factors that increase vulnerability Anticipatory Responsive Goal of adaptation is to prepare for, and effectively respond to the health risk of climate change Mitigation is a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Mitigation, for health sector consists in promoting and support initiatives that protect health by reducing greenhouse gas emissions As discussed in an earlier module, adaptation includes the strategies, policies, and measures undertaken now and in the future in all sectors to reduce potential adverse effects of climate change. These strategies, policies, and measures can address the risks of climate change directly (i.e., developing early warning systems) or indirectly (i.e., improving the public health infrastructure). A primary goal of building adaptive capacity is to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to the health risks of climate change. Adaptation actions will be taken at all levels, including our individual actions as well as programs and activities implemented by the corporate sector, national agencies and institutions. These actions can be proactive, anticipating adverse health outcomes, or in response to observed climate change. Mitigation is a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Mitigation, for health sector consists in promoting and support initiatives that protect health by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 2
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Vulnerabilities in Highland Areas
Main health risks in highland regions Physical hazards from changing patterns of precipitation, snowmelt, and glacier-lake overflows Increase in vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria and dengue) due to the effects of temperature on the disease transmission cycle Adaptation measures can modify current programs, such as changing the location and/or intensity of vector control programs to prepare for projected changes in the geographic range or incidence of vectorborne diseases. Or, adaptation measures can be designed to address new risks, such as those due to glacier lake overflows. ©Guillaume Massardier, Muang La, 2009 3
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Context for Adaptation
Climate change is one of many factors influencing human health and social well-being In most cases, it multiplies the threats of current drivers of climate-sensitive health outcomes Public health challenges presented by climate change need to be addressed within the context of issues such as access to clean water and sanitation, inadequate nutrition, and diseases such as HIV/AIDS Poverty a major factor Also, as mentioned before, climate change is a stress multiplier for most climate-sensitive health outcomes. Therefore, effectively reducing the health risks of climate change means improving current health protection through addressing the key drivers of these health outcomes, within the context of other major health concerns. 4
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Local Context Matters Multiple political, social, economic, technological, and human factors determine whether adaptation strategies, policies, and measures are effective Therefore, differences in culture, education, knowledge, availability and affordability of technology, and other factors mean that a “one size fits all” approach is likely to fail A recurring theme throughout this training has been the importance of understanding the local context when conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments. As noted on the slide, there are a wide range of factors that will influence the extent of risk and the options available for implementation. 5
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Process is as Important as Outcome
Need to include stakeholders and policy makers This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise Explicitly address constraints and barriers Adaptation will affect and be affected by development pathways Within the context of other pressing health needs A risk management approach may be most effective Monitoring and evaluation important components When considering adaptation, the process often is as important as the outcome. Adaptation will be an ongoing process, thus ensuring that the process is appropriate will form an important basis for future efforts. As noted on the slide, adaptation is an expression of values, not just an analytic exercise. Constraints and barriers to implementation need to be explicitly addressed. The process needs to take into consideration that adaptation will affect and be affected by development pathways. Taking a risk management approach will likely be most effective. Risk management should consider both adaptation and mitigation, as both are needed to effectively manage the immediate and longer-term risks of climate change. 6
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Most Important – What is the Purpose?
Who is the audience for process? What questions do they want to address? What kind of information do they need? How can it be most effectively presented? Before beginning an adaptation assessment, it is important to understand the reasons for the assessment, including who will be the audience (e.g., national communications, Ministry of Health); the questions they would like addressed; the information needed to answer the questions; and how the final results could be most effectively presented. Taking the time to work through these questions will result in a more effective and efficient process. 7
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Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change
Existing risks Modifying existing prevention strategies Reinstitute effective prevention programs that have been neglected or abandoned Apply win/win or no-regrets strategies New risks Most adaptation options will be implemented to address the existing adaptation deficit (that is, address current vulnerability to climate variability). Existing prevention strategies, such as programs to address food security, may need to be implemented in new regions. Particularly for the risks of vectorborne diseases changing their incidence or geographic range, a key adaptation may be to reinstitute effective programs that have been neglected or abandoned. Because of the uncertainties around future projections, whatever options are implemented should be robust to whatever changes occur. New risks also will arise, such as when outbreaks of infectious diseases appear in places where they are unexpected, or through new pathways. Improving the public health infrastructure is needed in many areas to increase the capacity to effectively prepare for and respond to current and new risks. 8
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Framework for Adaptation
This slide was shown in an earlier module. Conducting an adaptation assessment within a risk management framework facilitates understanding that adaptation is a process; that options implemented will need to be evaluated as the climate changes to determine their effectiveness under new conditions and to determine if modifications need to be made. UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2006 9
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UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is one approach for conducting an adaptation assessment. It emphasizes current vulnerabilities to climate variability and continued stakeholder involvement in the assessment process. The APF can be downloaded at It is also published in: Lim et al. (eds.) 2005. 10
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NAPA Process NAPAs are National Adaptation Programmes of Action. NAPAs have been conducted by nearly 40 Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The NAPA process includes stakeholders in integration and interpretation of vulnerability and adaptation. 11
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Health Impact Assessment (HIA)
A combination of procedures, methods and tools by which a policy, project, or hazard may be judged as to its potential effects on the health of a population, and the distribution of those effects within the population An adaptation assessment can be considered as part of a health impact assessment. 12
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Elements in HIA Integrated assessment of impacts, i.e., not concentrating on single risk factors and disease outcomes (a holistic view of health) Relates to policies and projects outside the health sector Multidisciplinary process Provides information for decision-makers, designed with needs of decision-makers in mind Quantification of the expected health burden due to an environmental exposure in a specific population This lists the standard elements of a health impact assessment. 13
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Questions for Identifying Adaptation Policies and Measures
Adaptation to what? What is the current burden of disease? Is additional intervention needed? What are the future projections for the climate-sensitive health outcome? Who is vulnerable? On scale relevant for adaptation? These and other adaptation processes have included the questions listed on the slide. Adaptation to what – is adaptation required to flooding, the spread of vector-borne disease, etc.? The policies and measures implemented must be specific to both the weather/climate hazard, the health outcome of concern, and the local context. The effectiveness of interventions needs to be determined before improving current programs or implementing new ones. Are there additional interventions that could reduce the current burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes? Would a heat event early warning system be useful? Additional surveillance? Etc. Using projections of changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions, what are the likely impacts? Which population groups are likely to be at the highest risk? For example, aging of populations in developed countries is likely to increase population vulnerability to heat events. 14
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Questions for Identifying Adaptation Policies and Measures (cont.)
Who adapts? How does adaptation occur? When should interventions be implemented? How good or likely is the adaptation? Who will undertake the adaptations – individuals, communities, nations? Will the adaptation be reactive to climate change or proactive? How can the process be facilitated? When should the interventions be implemented? For example, there is concern about malaria spreading to highland areas of Africa. Surveillance systems should be established at the edges of the current distribution where changes in temperature and/or precipitation could provide a suitable climate for malaria vectors. Once surveillance has identified the presence of the vectors, then programs to distribute treated bednets could be implemented. Finally, the effectiveness of all interventions should be monitored and evaluated to ensure that public health funds are being used effectively and efficiently. 15
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Adaptation Baseline What is being done now to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes? How effective are these policies and measures? What could be done now to reduce current vulnerability? What are the main barriers to implementation (such as technology or political will)? What measures should begin to be implemented to increase the range of possible future interventions? Beginning the process of adaptation will require an understanding of what is currently being done to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes, as well as how effective those activities are in addressing climate variability and other factors. Discussions with experts involved with these activities and/or independent evaluations will provide insights into what else could be done now to reduce current vulnerability and the barriers to implementing these activities. Qualitative or quantitative consideration of likely future climate change can identify additional measures to increase the ability of the institutions, agencies, communities, and individuals to increase the range of possible future interventions, such as increasing the geographic extent of integrated vector management programs in anticipation of disease vectors changing their range. 16
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Steps in an Adaptation Assessment
Determine the scope of the assessment Region Health outcome(s) Identify and convene stakeholders Identify and evaluate current strategies, policies, and measures to reduce that burden (adaptation baseline) These are the basic steps for conducting an adaptation assessment. The scope of the assessment (in terms of geographic extent, temporal time scale, health outcomes of interest, and other factors) should be written up at the beginning of the process. Ideally, the scoping of the assessment will include stakeholders to make sure the assessment includes their key issues of concern. In any case, stakeholders should be involved throughout the process. As discussed previously, the team working on the assessment should evaluate the effectiveness of current activities to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes, and to determine what additional measures would increase their effectiveness. 17
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Steps in an Adaptation Assessment (cont.)
Estimate future potential health impacts using socioeconomic and climate change scenarios Can be qualitative or quantitative Identify additional adaptation measures to reduce potential negative health effects Using qualitative or quantitative methods, estimation of the potential future health impacts will provide the basis for deciding what additional adaptation measures will be needed. Specification of the additional measures should include the geographic area where the measures are to be implemented, the time period for implementation, the mechanisms for implementation, who should be involved, etc. 18
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Scope of the Assessment
Health issues of concern today and of potential risk in the future Interactions between weather/climate and health are location-specific Geographic region to be covered Time period Include time periods appropriate to planning Project must aim to reduce vulnerability to climate change The slide identifies some of the issues that need to be determined before beginning to conduct the assessment. 19
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Possible Impacts Scenarios
Slow, steady change in weather Increasing climate variability Increasing extreme events Crossing thresholds Any combination of the above In thinking about adaptation options, it may be helpful to discuss the ways that climate change could be experienced, from single large-scale disasters to more frequent smaller-scale events to responses of infectious diseases to slowly increasing changes in temperature and precipitation to all of the above. 20
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Adaptation Mode, Level, and Stage (examples shown are for malaria)
of intervention intervention Stage of Stage of intervention intervention Social Surveillance Hlth systems Social Social Social Social Biological Biological Biological Biological Behavioral Behavioral Behavioral Behavioral Adaptive Adaptive Adaptive Adaptive Use Use Use Use of of of of Surveillance immunity immunity bednets Health systems bednets bednets bednets Other institutions Primary Primary Primary Primary Tertiary Tertiary Tertiary Tertiary Vaccination Vaccination, Vaccination Vaccination Early Early Early Early Community Community Global Dams Dams Dams Dams treatment treatment treatment treatment or group or group Individual One categorization of adaptation measures is into the mode of intervention (i.e., biological, behavioral, or social), the level of intervention (i.e., individual, community, national, or global), and the stage of intervention (primary, secondary, or tertiary). There are advantages for all categorization schemes; the one that works best in a particular situation will depend on the needs of the stakeholders. Individual National National National National Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Early Early Early Early warning warning warning warning Level of Level of intervention intervention Based on McMichael and Kovats, 2000 21
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Adaptation Options to Reduce the Health Impacts of Climate Change
Health Outcome Legislative Technical Educational-advisory Cultural & Behavioral Thermal stress Building guidelines Housing, public buildings, urban planning, air conditioning Early warning systems Clothing, siesta Extreme weather events Planning laws, economic incentives for building Urban planning, storm shelters Use of storm shelters Vector-borne diseases Vector control, vaccination, impregnated bednets, sustainable surveillance, prevention & control programmes Health education Water storage practices Water-borne diseases Watershed protection laws, water quality regulation Screening for pathogens, improved water treatment & sanitation Boil water alerts Washing hands and other behavior, use of pit latrines These are examples of adaptation options categorized into legislative, technical, educational or advisory, and cultural and behavioral. Obviously these are just examples from a much longer list of possible options. The specific options chosen to address a particular risk in a particular location will depend on the local context. McMichael et al., 2003a 22
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Adaptation Measures to Reduce Vector-borne Diseases
Decision support tools Early warning systems Technology development Vaccines and more rapid diagnostic tests Surveillance and monitoring Effective vector surveillance and control programs that incorporate climate change concerns Infrastructure development Consider possible impacts of infrastructure development, such as water storage tanks Here are some examples of adaptation measures to reduce the geographic spread and increased incidence of vector-borne diseases that are projected to occur in some areas. There are multiple categorization schemes for adaptation measures; this categorizes measures into those that are primarily decision support tools, those where technology development is needed, those requiring modification or implementation of surveillance and monitoring programs, and those where infrastructure development would increase resilience to vector-borne diseases. 23
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Adaptation Measures to Reduce Health Outcomes from Floods
Legislative policies Improve land use planning Decision support tools Early warning systems and emergency response plans Technology development Surveillance and monitoring Alter health data collection systems to monitor for disease outbreaks during and after an extreme event Here are some examples of adaptation measures to reduce the adverse health impacts of flooding. Similar lists can be created for other climate-sensitive health outcomes. 24
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Adaptation Measures to Reduce Health Outcomes from Floods (cont.)
Infrastructure development Design infrastructure to withstand projected extreme events Other Conduct research on effective approaches to encourage appropriate behavior during an extreme event Here are some examples of adaptation measures to reduce the adverse health impacts of flooding. Similar lists can be created for other climate-sensitive health outcomes. 25
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Particularly Vulnerable Populations for Floods
Glacial lake floods: Elderly, poor, nomadic, children, disabled or infirm, women, independently living ethnic groups in remote areas Flash: Everyone in the path of the floods Riverine (plains): Elderly, poor, nomadic, children, the disabled or sick, women, and people in poor housing, coastal areas, institutions, or on isolated islands The assessment should focus on addressing particularly vulnerable populations; these are examples for those most at risk from flooding events. 26
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Prioritization We don’t make major changes to anticipate climate change decades from now Options selected for implementation should: Make sense anyway And make even more sense considering climate change Policies and measures that reduce vulnerability to climate variability will generally reduce risk to climate change Have marginal adjustments and low cost “No regrets” An adaptation assessment is likely to identify many more options for implementation than actually can be implemented. This will require prioritization of the options to identify those with the highest priority. The priority options should address the current adaptation deficit (i.e., where there are increased burdens of climate-sensitive diseases); that is, they make sense anyway and become more urgent when considering climate change. In general, measures that reduce vulnerability to climate variability will generally reduce future risks to climate change. Policy makers always look for options that have marginal adjustments and low cost than implementing new and expensive programs, unless it can be demonstrated that the benefits of a new program will greatly exceed its costs. As mentioned previously, adaptation policies and measures should be robust to a range of future climates (i.e., no regrets). 27
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No Regrets Adaptations
Perform well under a variety of climates Current climate Hotter and drier Hotter and wetter Can be easily modified as the climate continues to change The magnitude and extent of climate change is uncertain, with greater uncertainty associated with projections of precipitation. Therefore, in many regions there is uncertainty whether there will be increased or decreased precipitation. Adaptation measures need to be flexible so that they can be adjusted to effectively cope with whatever the climate brings. 28
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Three Key Criteria for Prioritization of Adaptations
Benefits / effectiveness Costs Feasibility Benefits and effectiveness – This criterion addresses the extent to which the adaptation policy reduces vulnerability and provides other benefits. Essentially, this criterion compares vulnerability without adaptation to vulnerability with adaptation. This difference in vulnerability can be thought of as the primary benefit of the adaptation option. Ancillary- or co-benefits should explicitly be considered if the adaptation option provides benefits to other sectors or for other policy objectives. This criterion can indicate relative differences in effectiveness between multiple policy alternatives. For example, creating water markets to promote more accurate accounting of the real value of increasingly scarce water resources may not be as effective at reducing demand as incentivizing water efficiency measures. This criterion also includes the concept of flexibility. In other words, can the policy be adjusted in response to changing conditions or will it be effective (provide benefits) under different plausible climate scenarios? Costs – This criterion concerns whether an adaptation is relatively expensive or inexpensive. Typically, cost includes the initial costs of implementing an adaptation policy. However, costs over time, such as operation and maintenance, administration and staffing, expected frequency of reconstruction, and so forth should also be considered. An accounting of costs should include non-economic and non-quantifiable costs as well as economic and/or quantifiable costs. For example, costs such as a reduction in viable habitat for significant species or an increased impact on human health should be considered along side more traditional costs. Feasibility – This criterion addresses whether the action can be implemented. Do the necessary legal, administrative, financial, technical, and other resources exist, and are they available for use on this policy option? This typically means that adaptations that can be implemented under the current operational framework will be favored over adaptation options that require new authority, new technology, changes in people’s preferences, or other significant changes in the operational context. Feasibility also includes the concept of a ‘window of opportunity.’ For example, most planning decisions undergo a periodic review, for example, every 10 or 20 years. If one of these planning documents is up for reconsideration, then a window of opportunity exists that makes the adaptation option more feasible. Windows of opportunity can also be created when the political landscape is propitious or when response is required following a disaster. 29
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Additional Criteria for Prioritization of Adaptations
Timing Significance Certainty Adaptive capacity Timing – Some climate impacts are not expected to occur for many decades while others are already being observed or are likely to become apparent within a few decades. If an impact is already occurring or projected to occur in the near future, it may merit greater consideration than longer term impacts. Significance – Significance describes the magnitude or extent of the anticipated impact on social, cultural, environmental, and other non-economic values. This criteria is subjective and purposefully designed to capture many of the intangible issues that may concern many citizens, such as social justice, the viability of small or rural communities, maintaining historical ways of life, biodiversity, etc. Consequently, there is no right or wrong ranking for this criteria. Its value is best determined through a deliberative process that surveys a broad and representative group of stakeholders . Certainty – We know some outcomes of climate change with more certainty than others. For example, observed trend data, climate models, and theoretical considerations all indicate that temperatures are warming, especially over land. Similarly, sea levels are clearly rising because of a warming climate. However, there is more uncertainty regarding regional or local changes in precipitation. A more certain climate change that is a key driver of an impact may merit greater decision-making weight than a less certain impact. Adaptive capacity – Adaptive capacity describes the ability of a human or natural system to cope with the consequences of climate change. Some systems can accommodate changes in climate without significant intervention while other systems cannot. For example, hard infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, coastal buildings, etc. cannot alter their alignment, elevation, or structural foundation to accommodate coastal erosion or increased flood risk. 30
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Screening the Theoretical Range of Adaptation Options for Malaria
In the process of identifying specific measures to implement, it can be useful to begin by generating a list of all potential measures, without regard to technical feasibility, cost, or other limiting criteria. Such a theoretical range of choice consists of a comprehensive listing of all available (including currently implemented) measures, new or untried measures, plus other measures that are theoretically possible. The list may be compiled from a canvass of current practice and experience, from a search for measures used in other jurisdictions and in other societies, and from a brain storming session with scientists, practitioners, and affected stakeholders to identify measures that might be an option in the future. Assuming that one policy objective is to increase adaptive capacity to climate variability and change in the health sector, listing the full range of potential adaptation options provides policy makers with a picture of measures that could be implemented to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality of climate-related risks, and which choices are constrained because of a lack of technology, information or resources, or as a consequence of other policy choices. The next step is to screen the theoretical range of adaptation options to determine which measures are possible for a particular community or country over a particular time period, within existing technological, financial, and human capital constraints, to generate a list of options from which policy makers can choose. Criteria that can be used to determine which choices are practical include: Technical feasibility. Is the choice technically viable or available? Has its effectiveness been demonstrated? Degree of effectiveness. How effective is the proposed measure in reducing the incidence of the adverse health outcome? Environmental acceptability. Does the proposed measure have environmental consequences that are unacceptable? Economic efficiency. How expensive is the choice in relation to expected benefits? Social and legal acceptability. After this screening process, some measures will remain available or open, and others will be eliminated or blocked in the immediate term. This does not mean that they will be unavailable in the future; the fact that a theoretical option is blocked may be an incentive to find ways of removing the constraint through research, changing laws, or educating the public about the benefits of a practice that is considered culturally unacceptable. Those choices that are open comprise the currently available practical range of adaptation options. Ebi and Burton, 2008 31
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Questions for Second Stage Screening
What is the exposure intensity or size of the event? Is the adaptation technically feasible? Is it economically possible? Once the adaptation options have been narrowed to practical choices, additional analysis can identify and prioritize these choices for consideration by policy makers. Because all possible options were listed for the theoretical range of choice exercise, the practical range of options will likely include both new and current measures that analysis recommends be modified or abandoned in a particular setting. Analyses can be conducted through quantitative assessment, solicitation of expert judgment and/or stakeholder groups, or another approach. Policy makers will combine the information generated by the assessment with other considerations to determine the final measures for implementation. Seven additional criteria are suggested to facilitate selection of practical adaptation options and to aid prioritization of likely options. The first, magnitude of the event, or intensity of the exposure, refers to estimation of the actual exposure and/or the health outcome of concern. For example, if the concern is related to flooding, what is the projected flood return period? What is the intensity of projected floods? In terms of the health outcome of concern, what is its present and potential future incidence? How serious is the projected health burden? Some proposed measures might be not relevant in the case of a low level of risk (e.g., expensive investments in infrastructure), while others may be inadequate to cope with high levels of risk (e.g., malaria prophylaxis in economically depressed regions with very high disease burdens). Technical viability. This criterion refers to the technical practicality of the proposed measure. For example, can sufficient numbers of insecticide-treated bednets be manufactured and supplied to all exposed regions? Will they be effective for the length of the malaria season? Financial capacity. Are the financial resources available to implement the measure? Even though the benefits of a measure exceed costs, it does not necessarily follow that policy makers can harness the required financial resources. It also is important to consider who bears the costs and how those budgets can be maintained over time. For example, in some communities, fire and rescue personnel are placed on call during a heatwave; the additional operational costs may come from the regular budget, requiring trade-offs with other programs. The total cost over the period of time the measure will remain in operation is an important consideration. Source: Ebi and Burton 2008 32
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Questions for Second Stage Screening (cont.)
Is institutional support and human capital available? Is it compatible with current policies? Is policy change needed? Transboundary issue? Human skills and institutional capacity. Does the country have a sufficient number of trained people and the necessary institutional arrangements to implement the proposed measure? If not, are there non-governmental organizations, international agencies, or others that might be willing to provide skilled personnel and the training necessary to develop local capacity? Compatibility with current policy? Is the proposed measure compatible or in conformity with current policy? Does current policy have to be changed in order for the measure to be deployed? For example, draining wetlands can reduce vector-breeding sites, but may not be compatible with environmental protection policies. Is there a target of opportunity for implementing the policy? For example, tourism is a key economic sector in many countries that could be adversely affected by heatwaves. A target of opportunity for implementing measures to inform tourists of appropriate activities during a heatwave would be while the early warning system is being developed or modified. What are the potential negative consequences of implementing the option? Public health is full of examples of technologies that appeared promising and were implemented widely, only to discover later that key assumptions about how the technology would be used were not met, that there are negative unintended consequences, etc. This criterion calls for thinking about what (and how) implementation could go wrong, and monitoring for and taking appropriate corrective actions early. Source: Ebi and Burton 2008 33
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Health Risks May Arise from Adaptations in Other Sectors
Water Climate change very likely to exacerbate water stress/floods/water quality Adaptation measures may increase exposure to a range of infectious diseases Food Magnitude of climate change impacts on factors determining food security Magnitude of possible impacts on health through adaptation and mitigation measures, such as biofuels Energy Health co-benefits and harms of altering energy and transport systems The slide provides a few examples of how choices taken in other sectors of avoid, prepare for, and respond to climate change risks may cause health benefits or harms. Therefore, the health sector needs to make sure they engage with broadly across other sectors to identify possible harms before they occur, and to provide information to communicate possible benefits to policy-makers. Recommended reading: 2007 IPCC reports: Working Group II, Summary pages 1 to 23 34
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