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Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist

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Presentation on theme: "Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist"— Presentation transcript:

1 Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook Mar. 26, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2 Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

3 Soybean Meal Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

4 Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

5 Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

6

7 Global Shares Source: USDA

8

9 Arable land

10 Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

11 Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

12 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13 Corn Grind for Ethanol

14 Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

15 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 176.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 14,890 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,835 Imports 67 57 36 40 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,600 16,765 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,304 5,375 5,500 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,550 5,575 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,451 1,465 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,375 2,475 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,765 15,015 Ending Stocks 1,750 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.55 3.65 Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report 15 15

16 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 85.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 51.6 49.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,544 4,175 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 900 Imports 24 22 20 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 5,002 5,095 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,100 2,105 Seed & Residual 122 146 113 127 130 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,875 2,025 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,297 4,102 4,260 Ending Stocks 835 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 8.80 Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report 16 16

17 Weather Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC 17 17

18 Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 18 18

19 Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 19 19

20 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

21 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 21 21

22 Current Corn Futures 3.96 3.56 Source: CME Group, 3/26/2019

23 Current Soybean Futures
9.21 8.64 Source: CME Group, 3/26/2019

24 2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

25 2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

26 Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

27 Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

28 Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

29 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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