1. Hit Tracker Power Projection
Torii Hunter 1-year report:
2008 Projections, using 2007 data

2. Hit Tracker Power Projection Method
The Hit Tracker Power Projection method uses detailed individual analysis of every long fly ball hit by a player, and the ability to project those fly balls into other parks and weather conditions, to create the most accurate possible projection of a player’s future hitting performance.
Key Steps:
Observation and analysis of all long fly balls (any ball hit far enough to approach or clear the outfield fence of any MLB ballpark) for specified time period (1-3 seasons)
Projection of each long fly ball, via Hit Tracker, into each of the 30 MLB parks, in each park’s average weather conditions.
Evaluation of each projected ball as home run, off wall or “catchable”.
Evaluation of each “catchable” ball via range model as Flyout or hit.
Compilation of projected results for each ballpark, via substitution of projected results for actual results, and weighted towards more recent results (e.g weighting if 3-year analysis).
Compilation of projected results as member of each team via 2009 schedule

3. Long Fly Balls, Actual Landing Spots
200’
250’
300’
400’
350’
450’
500’
= FLY OUT
= 2B
= 3B
= HR
= 1B
Torii Hunter, 2007

4. Long Fly Balls, Detailed Data, page 1 of 2
Torii Hunter, 2007

5. Long Fly Balls, Detailed Data, page 2 of 2
Torii Hunter, 2007

6. Projected 2008 Batted Ball Events and Averages by Ballpark
Torii Hunter, 2007

7. Projected 2008 Home Runs per 162 games by Ballpark
Torii Hunter, 2007

8. Projected 2008 Home Runs and Averages by Team
Torii Hunter, 2007

9. Comparison to Actual 2008 Results
The Hit Tracker Power Projection method predicted a drop in power, BA/OBP and SLG due to Torii Hunter’s switch from the Twins to the Angels. Hunter’s actual 2008 performance conformed to the projection fairly well: his OPS and BA projections were extremely accurate, and the OBP and SLG projections were only slightly less accurate.
Torii Hunter, 2007