1. No transition Strategy = No Sustainability
CIVIL SOCIETY: CABINET MUST REPLACE OBSOLETE CLIMATE OBJECTIVES if not in denial – decisions are required
Challenge to all:
No transition Strategy = No Sustainability
Richard Worthington
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Project Manager
Climate & Energy Policies

2. & / or: mitigation capability
High SA coal consumption: shows ‘pathway dependence’
& / or: mitigation capability

3. South Africa’s Low-Emission Development Strategy (SA LEDS) 2050 (DEA, December 2018)
misrepresentation of South African climate change response implementation, e.g.: “…government is already implementing through a comprehensive set of strategies, policies and sector plans…”
asserts that a strategy exists, without identifying or defining a coherent strategy;
“This SA LEDS 2050 has been developed within the context of an objective, which can drive change through co-benefits such as job creation and socio-economic upliftment…”, but no such objective for this strategy is identified in the document.
Like the CC Bill, objective is a ‘fair contribution’ to the global effort in light of national circumstances, not adequate mitigation

4. What we immediately require of Cabinet:
Establishment of a domestic long-term mitigation objective or target - for a national emissions outcome that is consistent with the global mitigation goal of average global warming not exceeding 1.5 degrees; a long-term benchmark trajectory must be calibrated to an emissions outcome most desirable for all South Africans – not treated as a bargaining position for multilateral engagement;
A Commission on climate change that is inclusive and accountable, with a mandate and capacity to enable and ensure strategic decision-making;
An unequivocal commitment to rapidly maximising use of our world-leading renewable energy resources, as the guiding principle for electricity planning and a Just Transition of the energy system;
Development of a just transition plan to phase out coal use from our energy system, starting with coal-fired electricity generation, that is designed to reduce poverty and inequality; a plan that prioritises the interests of workers and communities over short-term aspirations of financiers or the energy incumbency;

5. 7th Oct
2018
7th Jan
2016
Landmark UN scientists’ report confirms ruinous contrast between 1.5˚C & 2˚C global warming 
Image: Climate Home
IPCC concludes that for 1.5˚C limit, emissions must be cut from 2010 levels by 45% by 2030, and to net zero by 2050 (20% and 2075 for 2˚C). This requires reconfiguring of the human world within a generation.

6. “Vested-interest pressure is acute in all directions; climate denialists accuse the IPCC of alarmism, whereas many climate action proponents consider the IPCC to be far too conservative.
To cap it all, the IPCC conclusions are subject to intense political oversight before being released, which historically has had the effect of substantially watering-down sound scientific findings.”

7. potential to undo or undermine
“…government regards climate
change as a considerable threat
to the country and …has the
potential to undo or undermine
many of the advances made in recent years.”
SA LEDS 2050 (p.6): “If left unaddressed, climate change is likely to come at a significant cost to the economy and society. This includes impacts on water resources, food production and increased vulnerabilities of impoverished communities. For this reason, the South African government regards climate change as a considerable threat to the country and its socio-economic development and has the potential to undo or undermine many of the advances…

9. The Framing of the LEDS should clearly acknowledge that:
If unaddressed, climate change is certain to involve massive “costs to the economy and society” and constitutes an existential threat to humanity; what is “likely” for our region under business-as-usual scenarios is a complete breakdown of organised society, with mass starvation, before 2100;
Even if global warming is kept below 2 degrees, climate change constitutes “a considerable threat” that will undermine [advances in] the well-being of the majority of South Africans and has “the potential to undo” all efforts to achieve water- and food-security;
The IPCC has established that the severity of climate change impacts will escalate substantially with even small increments in global warming above 1.5 degrees, thus establishing that SA climate change response policy, starting with mitigation, urgently requires sweeping revision;

10. Peak, Plateau and Decline (PPD) Range The NCCRWP stipulates a range for national emissions, with specific numbers for particular years, depicted graphically in documentation for implementation
Totalling annual national emissions figures provided for the period for the trajectories labelled High, Mid and Low, yields the following sums:
Mt CO2e
per annum
Plateau Mt
23 Gt
19 Gt
15 Gt Mt
“The national emissions trajectory range, as in NCCRWP …will provide the basis for defining DEROs in the short, medium and long term, as follows: to keep national emissions to the middle of the PPD range for the period …”
This is represented in the 2050 Calculator with a green band … Mt

11. Carbon Action Tracker: SA inadequate
Simplistic indication of “sufficient” ambition for SA

12. Potential emissions trajectories for SA
Mt CO2eq per annum
>30 Gt
‘Mid-PPD’
proposed for DEROs
BELOW 2°C
The 12 Gt line is indicative of a ceiling on civil society positioning, though some will emphasise the Africa Group position that calls for stabilisation no higher than 1.5°C and thus an objective of 10Gt or less

13. Potential emissions trajectories & top of PPD Range
Mt CO2eq per annum
>30 Gt
The 12 Gt line is indicative of a ceiling on civil society positioning, though some will emphasise the Africa Group position that calls for stabilisation no higher than 1.5°C and thus an objective of 10Gt or less
BELOW 2°C

14. Nationally Determine Contribution (NDC) of SA
Mt CO2eq per annum
>30 Gt
NDC
The 12 Gt line is indicative of a ceiling on civil society positioning, and some will emphasise the Africa Group position that calls for stabilisation no higher than 1.5°C and thus an objective of 10Gt or less.
BELOW 2°C

15. Emissions Constraints in draft IRP 2018 (Section 3.4 )
No change from the 2008 point of departure of the IRP2010;
DENIAL of (or failure to recognise) the cost-benefits of contemporary mitigation opportunity –.
Proposal of a budget for electricity of 5 470 Mt for period – 2050 with no explanation, when a carbon budget for electricity commensurate with the global goal is less than half of this:
IRP Update 2018

16. Illustration of draft IRP 2018 ‘carbon budget’ in comparison to a least cost scenario modelled by CSIR using IRP input data
Least
cost

17. https://www. businesslive. co

18. Bischof-Niemz and Creamer (2018)
PPD / NDC
Approx Mt

19. Draft IRP 2018 - some salient features: (R Worthington)
Official recognition of decisive shift in technology costs of RE - now the cheapest new plant - and that big coal and nuclear no longer make sense (though door not closed on further investment, sp. ‘CCT’).
However, ignores the opportunity of cost-negative GHG emissions reduction in electricity system due to our world-leading RE resources, also offering a global competitive advantage;
Assumes Eskom fleet performance is substantially improved and no early retirement will take place, while fudging the issues of compliance with Air Quality Standards & ignores coal supply challenges;
Endorses increasing provision for IPPs, incl. for fossil fuel generation;
Creates a ‘valley of death’ for development of local RE manufacturing;
arbitrary constraints on roll-out of wind and solar power across most scenarios;
Silent on access to electricity, for 3 million households without grid access (“Embedded Generation” should be expanded to address all decentralised supply opportunities);

20. STOP HERE

21. What we require of Cabinet et al
Establishment of a domestic long-term mitigation objective or target - for a national emissions outcome that is consistent with the global mitigation goal of average global warming not exceeding 1.5 degrees; a long-term benchmark trajectory must be calibrated to an emissions outcome most desirable for all South Africans – not treated as a bargaining position for multilateral engagement;
A Commission on climate change that is inclusive and accountable, with a mandate and capacity to enable and ensure strategic decision-making;
An unequivocal commitment to rapidly maximising use of our world-leading renewable energy resources, as the guiding principle for electricity planning and a Just Transition of the energy system;
Development of a just transition plan to phase out coal use from our energy system, starting with coal-fired electricity generation, that is designed to reduce poverty and inequality; a plan that prioritises the interests of workers and communities over short-term aspirations of financiers or the energy incumbency;

22. Carbon Tracker SA, 2012: RESERVES EXCEED CARBON BUDGET
16.4 = LTMS Required by Science budget

23. 100
2 units Kusile ?
IPPs
Peaking?
11.4 GW cumulative
in 2030

24. Nhlanhla Nene, Minister of Finance, Republic of South Africa
“Bischof-Niemz and Creamer provide the knowledge base for South Africa’s energy transition towards a renewables-based energy system. The positive news is that there is no trade-off anymore between clean and least-cost electricity. In fact, the opportunities for economic growth associated with the transition are enormous.” —
Nhlanhla Nene, Minister of Finance, Republic of South Africa

25. APPROPRIATE NATIONAL MITIGATION AMBITION
APPROPRIATE – global goal / Paris Agreement
NATIONAL MITIGATION ≠ ‘fair share’ / national contribution
- national opportunity for ‘green economy’ sp. clean energy industries
AMBITION – to realise the potential opportunity
including securing climate and renewables finance
cumulative emissions outcome determines impact, hence international interest in national emissions trajectories and mitigation potential –
Where in the world is mitigation opportunity to be found? i.e. the market opportunity emerging in a world that is embracing transformation to achieve the global goal of well below 2 degrees
Ambition not equal responsibility; it is what we will seek to achieve – including that for which we can reasonably and equitably expect support

26. draft LEDS - Section 9.2 - Carbon Tax
The following clarification regarding application of the Carbon Tax in conjunction with Carbon Budgets is most welcome: “Post-2020, the carbon tax and the carbon budgeting system will be aligned. This will be done by imposing a higher tax rate as a penalty for emissions exceeding the carbon budget.”
In light of on-going deliberations regarding the Carbon Tax, it is important that such commitment to the polluter pays principle is included in the LEDS, as it is a significant strategic choice.
It isn’t appropriate to specify the base rate of the Carbon Tax in this strategy, considering that the value proposed is too low to carry strategic weight, but this could be off-set by the penalty for exceeding carbon budgets, if these are set stringently.

27. CSIR (2016): Wind and Solar PV Resource Aggregation Study for South Africa - Public presentation of results; Pretoria, 3 March 2016; Dr. Stefan Bofinger, Britta Zimmermann, Ann-Katrin Gerlach – Fraunhofer IWES; Dr. Tobias Bischof-Niemz, Crescent Mushwana
….. But this is just electricity

28. CSIR Energy Centre on 40% RE by 2030
40% of the South African electricity demand by 2030 (450 TWh/yr as per IRP2010) from renewables
• GW of wind turbines (2-3 GW/yr)
• GW of solar PV (2-3 GW/yr)
• 4-5 GW of biomass, biogas and CSP (300 MW/yr)
Prerequisites for a cost-efficient integration
• Possibility to connect medium-sized wind and solar PV (approx MW per project) to existing grid
• Possibility to connect embedded generators behind customers’ meters to the grid
• Creation of a procurement platform that allows cost-efficient procurement of energy/capacity, as well as reserves from a wide range of distributed sources through aggregators/Virtual Power Plants
Prerequisites for successful technical integration
• Widespread spatial distribution of wind & PV to reduce short-term volatility of the aggregated profile
• Investments into grid infrastructure to unlock potential for wind integration in areas with no grid
• Flexibilisation of the existing conventional fleet to cater for increasing fluctuations of residual load
• 4-5 GW of flexible power generators from the biomass/biogas/CSP fleet in addition to the flexible gas fleet that is already planned in the IRP 2010 are sufficient to provide the required flexibility
Further cost reduction of electricity storage in form of batteries will be an added bonus to provide flexibility, is however not a necessary pre-condition for achieving a 40% renewables share by 2030
Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz, 20 August 2015,

29. CSIR, 3 November 2016 - Electricity

30. https://www. carbontracker
why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/
Fossil fuel demand will peak in the 2020s

31. The amounts at risk are colossal
The systemic risk to investors comes from the fact that the fossil fuel sector has $25tn of fixed assets …vulnerable to stranding as the energy transition progresses. Countries dependent on fossil fuel exports are vulnerable to the ending of the high rents of the sector. We identify 12 countries where fossil fuel rents are over 10% of GDP.

33. The latest special report from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the implications of global warming of 1.5 C notes that countries in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics are projected to experience the largest impacts on economic growth due to climate change should global warming increase from 1.5°C to 2°C.

35. BACKUP FOR QUESTIONS

36. Stats-SA
Employment increases by ~80% ( + ~40 000) while production grows by < 30%
(60 Mt – see left )

38. Decolonise the energy system
One could describe our current energy system, with coal contributing about 70% of primary resource supply, including about 90% of electricity generation and a quarter of liquid fuels, purely in terms of its extractive and capitalist characteristics. We could also take a long-term perspective to consider the colonial character of an energy system that serves to appropriate natural resources, concentrate wealth in a small elite, provides abundant energy to big business, facilitates revenue being taken from the country, but fails to serve the majority as it should.

39. “The depressing reality about climate change is that
we could solve the problem, at manageable cost,
but are failing to do so”: FT Editorial Board
26th Dec
2018
7th Jan
2016
“This failure is due to a mixture of blindness and self-deception. The blindness comes from those, such as US president Donald Trump, who deny the reality of climate change.”
How blind do you have to be?
“The self-deception comes from those who accept the reality, but only pretend to solve it. …The tragedy is that while the scientists and technologists have won the argument, the climate sceptics and deniers have effectively won the policy debate.”

40. The End of Ice: Bearing Witness and Finding Meaning in the Path of Climate Disruption
From award-winning Truthout staff reporter Dahr Jamail, The End of Ice is “assiduously researched, profoundly affecting, and filled with vivid evocations of the natural world." (Kirkus Reviews)

41. 1000 Gg CO2e = 1 Mt CO2e ELECTRICITY ~240 Mt
SOUTH AFRICA’S DRAFT 3RD BIENNIAL UPDATE REPORT TO THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Department of Environmental Affairs – RSA - Public Consultation Draft: July 2018
1000 Gg CO2e = 1 Mt CO2e ELECTRICITY ~240 Mt
2015 total: Gg = ~ 530 Mt CO2e

42. Eskom Plant 50 Year Life decommissioning and Air Quality Retrofit Schedule – as in draft IRP2018
‘16
2017 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Majuba
LNB
Kendal
Matimba
Lethabo
Tutuka
FFP LNB
Duvha
FFP
Matla
Kriel
Arnot
Hendrina
Camden
Grootvlei
Komati
Emission abatement retrofit
50yr life decommissioning
Department of Energy 2018 same as IRP 2010
plus new retirement dates –
no. of units in years as listed in Eskom input to DoE on IRP 2018