1. CAFE baseline dissemination workshop
September 27, 2004 Hendrik Conscience building, Brussels

2. Purpose of the workshop
Presentation public, first hand information on the CAFE baseline projections.
Understanding of the common starting point for the analysis on further emission control legislation in Europe.
Information on project environmental and health impacts of the air quality up to 2020.
Presentation the results of the peer review of the RAINS model.
Clarification of results.
Information of next steps on analysis and publication of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution.

3. Programme 10:10 Building the baseline (Vainio)
10:30 Energy projections (Mantzos)
10:55 Commentary (Jol)
11:05 Discussion
11:20 Coffee break
11:40 CAFE Baseline (Amann)
12:10 Commentary (Baverstock)
12:20 Discussion
13:00 Lunch
14:00 Baseline impacts (Amann)
14:40 Commentary (Ågren)
14:50 Discussion
15:20 Sum up findings (Amann) 
15:40 Coffee break
16:00 RAINS Review (Woodfield)
16:30 Discussion
16:50 Overall discussion  
17:20 Next steps (Gammeltoft)
17.30 Closure

4. Building the baseline
Motto “Wisdom starts from facing the facts”: CONSTRUCTION OF THE BASELINE IN CAFE
(3 December 2001)
See
steering_technical_group/construction_of_baseline.pdf
Main issues to be solved when baseline is developed:
Changes in economic activity
Changes in the structure of our economies
Changes in autonomous technological development
Changes in specific sectors
Agriculture (e.g. CAP reform), energy supply (eg. renewables, nuclear), transport sector (e.g. biofuels, congestion charging), industry and other sectors (new production methods, innovations etc.)

5. Principles when building the CAFE baseline
Extensive consultation
Planned to hold three stakeholder workshops. Actually held “kick off” and “final” workshop and a series of bilateral consultations. In addition, specific workshops/meetings on agriculture, transport (TREMOVE) and industry were held either under the auspices of CAFE or separately (eg. TFIAM).
Review main tools
CAFE team decided with CLRTAP (TFIAM) to have RAINS peer reviewed.
Review ecosystem and health impacts - abatement options
CCE, WHO, EGTEI and others gave vital technical information
EMEP calculated the effects of the baseline emissions
Also EMEP model was peer reviewed.
Transparency
Identified the clear need to share the CAFE baseline with the State of the Environment and Outlook of EEA.

6. Main technical tasks of Clean Air for Europe
New target setting (2004) [4.1 & 4.2]
Assessment of health and environ-mental effects ( ) [ ]
Integrated Assessment (including CBA) ( ) [ ]
Baseline emissions and air quality scenario (including atmospheric modelling) ( ) [ ]
Policy guidance (2005) [7]
Development & integration of models ( ) [2.4 & 5.2]
Implementation ( ) [6.1]
Peer review
Stakeholder participation
Public information
Note: Numbers is parenthesis ( ) refer to the years when the tasks are carried out. Numbers in square brackets [ ] refer to the tables of tasks in the Work Plan
27 September, 2004

7. Details of main technical tasks of CAFE
Assessment of health and environmental effects [ ]
Selection of health and environmental targets for optimisation [4.2]
Selection of alternative scenarios [5.2]
Selection of indicators [4.1]
Identification of potential measures [5.1]
Integrated Assessment Modelling [5.2]
Assessment of measures, ceilings, proposed targets or commitments [5.4]
Policy guidance [7]
Cost curves [5.1]
Baseline emissions scenario [ ]
Analysis of costs and benefits [5.3]
Source-receptor functions, regional and urban scale [2.4]
27 September 2004
Interaction
throughout
Note: Numbers in square brackets [ ] refer to the tables of tasks in the Work Plan
Monitoring and atmos-pheric modelling [ ]
Implementation, peer review, stakeholder participation, public information

8. Why and how were climate policies included
It was clear that one cannot prepare a baseline in isolation of climate change policies
Decarbonisation of the EU will affect air quality up to 2020
However, for CAFE robust assumptions should be enough
In consultion with the Climate Change unit, specific assumptions were made:
”Climate bonus” assumes that the enlarged EU complies with the Kyoto Protocol with €12 per tonne of CO2 equivalent
In the ”Sectoral Objectives study” the main conclusion was that EU-15 could comply with €20 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. JI/CDM and enlargement will reduce this cost.
Carbon constraint is assumed to increase linearly to €20 per tonne of CO2 equivalent by 2020

9. What about NEC? A separate baseline for NEC will be constructed
Also the integrated assessment modelling will be further developed
Bilateral consultations will take place in 2005
Proposal from the Commission in 2006

10. So let’s see how it looks like!
Conclusions
In 2001, we aimed at getting a baseline that is “as good as it gets”
Now we have it!
So let’s see how it looks like!