1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Hawkeye Farm Show
Cedar Falls, Iowa
Mar. 2, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
168.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
13,825
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,837
Imports
160 36 32 50 40
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,382
15,702
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,315
5,300
5,425
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,209
5,225
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,359
1,370
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,650
1,700
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,545
13,725
Ending Stocks
1,977
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.60
3.45
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
82.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
46.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,930
3,810
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
450
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,151
4,289
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,880
1,900
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
131
125
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,690
1,825
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,861
3,701
3,850
Ending Stocks
440
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.80
8.50
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yield Estimate
Top: 2015 Estimated Yields
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

14. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Ethanol Stocks

17. Current Corn Futures
3.65
3.53
3.50
Source: CME Group, 2/29/2016

18. Current Soybean Futures
8.59
8.30
8.33
Source: CME Group, 2/29/2016

19. 2015/16 Crop Margins

20. 2016/17 Crop Margins

21. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

22. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

23. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: