1. 1 Evaluating Complex System Interventions Evaluation 2009 Professional Development Workshop Beverly Parsons and Meg Hargreaves

2. 2 What is a System? A group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent elements forming a complex whole A configuration of parts connected and joined together by a web of relationships The whole is different from, and greater than, the sum of its parts

3. 3 Parts of an Elephant

4. 4 Systems Thinking A way of understanding reality that emphasizes the relationships among a systems parts, rather than the parts themselves. Concerned about interrelationships among parts and their relationship to a functioning whole Sees underlying patterns and structures

5. 5 Foundations of Systems Theory Cybernetics: system feedback, information; differences (that make a difference); human – machine analogy; inclusion of the observer and the observed in the system General systems theory: open systems; system integrity; nested system hierarchy, boundaries, webs, emergence (sum greater than parts)

6. 6 Systems Theories Soft and critical systems: human systems - multiple perspectives, power issues, intractable problems without simple solutions Systems dynamics: systems have reinforcing and balancing feedback loops, circularity, system archetypes, mental models, unintended consequences

7. 7 More Systems Theories Complexity theory: complex adaptive systems; semi-independent, interacting agents; self-organization; emergence; nonlinearity; co-evolution; past is irreversible; future is unpredictable Learning systems: the way that people learn and the systems in which they learn

8. 8 System Boundaries Shows what is inside and outside of the system Geographical (location) Organization (department, unit or function) Physical (money, material, information) Conceptual (goals, mission, purpose, rules) Intangibles (perceptions, awareness, models) Natural or man-made

9. 9 System Relationships (Interconnections) Connections and exchanges among system parts, parts and the whole, and the whole and its environment Flows of information Flows of funding Client referrals Collaborative partnerships Family, community, and social networks

10. 10 System Perspectives Stakeholders worldviews and purposes System agents who have different perspectives may pursue different purposes within a given situation Patterns of (mis)alignment of purposes and processes within and across system levels

11. 11 System Change System differences generate creative tension or energy within a system Positive or negative, energy provides potential for system change System change: shifts in patterns (similarities and differences) of system relationships, boundaries, focus, timing, events and behaviors over time and space

12. 12 System Dynamics Random (unorganized) Organized (simple or complicated) Adaptive (organic, self-organizing) All three system dynamics can be present in a complex situation

13. 13 Random System Attributes Random activity – no pattern Unconnected collection of parts No cause-effect relationships Turbulence – no stability or equilibrium Answers are unknowable No purpose or direction – people react blindly in a war zone or natural disaster

14. 14 Random System: Hurricane Katrina

15. 15 Organized (Simple) System Attributes Stable, static pattern Parts tightly connected machines Predictable cause-effect relationships System can be reduced to parts and processes and replicated Directive leadership, designed change Answers are knowable, with recipes or prescriptions for action

16. 16 Single Organized System: Ring-Around the Rosie

17. 17 Simple Organized System: Riding a Bicycle

18. 18 Organized (Complicated) System Attributes Dynamic patterns of feedback loops with many interrelated parts within and across subsystem levels Recursive, non-linear cause-effect relationships; reinforcing and balancing feedback loops maintain equilibrium Expert analysis can identify causal loops, deep structural causes to actions

19. 19 Insider Trading: A Tangled Web of Tips and Trades

20. 20 Adaptive (Complex) System Attributes Dynamical patterns – parts adapting, co- evolving with each other and environment Parts are massively entangled and interdependent; nested webs, networks Parts self-organize, learn, and change Equilibrium in flux, sensitive to initial conditions; system change emerges through interactions among parts

21. 21 Ecological View of an Elephant

22. 22 Complex Interdependencies

23. 23 Alignment of Context, Program, and Evaluation Dynamics Context can be random, organized, adaptive, or combination of dynamics Program design uses random, organized (entity-based), or adaptive (paradigm- based) or a combination of dynamics Evaluation design (content and process) can be entity-focused (organized), paradigm-focused (adaptive) or a combination of both

24. 24 System Dynamics of Family Nutrition

25. 25 Simple Organized Dynamics of Family Nutrition Context: hungry family Intervention: buy ingredients, bake a cake, serve family at dinner Evaluation: quality of cake, family satisfaction

26. 26 Complicated Organized Dynamics of Family Nutrition Context: hungry family with different tastes and preferences Intervention: ask for family preferences, create optional dishes, serve family multiple dishes at dinner Evaluation: quality and variety of dinner options, matching of dishes to tastes

27. 27 Complex, Adaptive Dynamics of Family Nutrition Context: hungry family with different tastes, schedules, and cooking ability Intervention: Buy and store meal options, make dishes for non-cooks, agree on dinner schedule, adapt shopping patterns to use of food and supplies Evaluation: trends, patterns of food use, meals, family nutrition, overall health

28. 28 System Dynamics of H1N1 Flu

29. 29 Simple Organized Dynamics of H1N1 Flu Context – everyone should be protected through vaccination Program design – universal flu shot clinics Evaluation design - How many clinics were conducted, how many people were vaccinated, how many people contracted the H1N1 flu virus

30. 30 Complicated Organized Dynamics of H1N1 Flu Context – people are at different risk levels for contracting the H1N1 flu Program design – allocate, administer flu shots by risk level, triage patients by level of risk Evaluation design - What proportion of people with high/medium/low risk receive the vaccine? What proportion of people at each risk level contract the H1N1 flu? How many deaths and hospitalizations are avoided as result of shots?

31. 31 Complex Adaptive Dynamics of H1N1 Flu Context – Timing of two interacting epidemics (H1N1 and seasonal flu) is ahead of current vaccine production Program design – Multi-level intervention: national media messages, provider triage by risk, populations self-organize multiple responses Evaluation design – What are changing patterns of twin epidemics? How are governments, providers, populations reacting and interacting in response to situation? Population health impacts?

32. 32 System Dynamics Discussion What are the situations boundaries, focus, interconnections, perspectives, power, timing, and dynamics? What are the risks of not understanding the system attributes and dynamics? What are the benefits of understanding the system attributes and dynamics?

33. 33 System Dynamics of Child Abuse Prevention – Home Visiting

34. 34 U.S. Child Abuse and Neglect Trends

35. 35 Context, Program Design of Child Abuse Prevention Context: Many programs exist but child abuse and neglect rates are increasing Program design: AFC funding for 17 grants for the adaptation, implementation, spread, and sustainability of evidence-based home visiting programs through infrastructure development and system change

36. 36 Evaluation Design of Evidence-based Home Visiting Initiative Program evaluation – tracking of cross-site cost, implementation, fidelity, and child and family outcomes of 17 EBHV programs System evaluation – tracking of cross-site and grantee-specific system infrastructure, theories of action, measures of system change, partner collaboration and network analysis; system unit of analysis

37. 37 Open Space Technology: System Dynamics Exercise What are the dynamics (i.e., the nature and balance of types of system dynamics) of the situation as a whole? What are the system dynamics of the intervention? What are the implications for the evaluation design and process?

38. 38 Three Dynamics of a Social System and its Context

39. 39 Match of Evaluation Designs to Dynamics of Social Systems and Their Context Exploratory Design Predictive Design Initiative Renewal Design Organic Design

40. 40 Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive (Self-organizing) Dynamics 1. Self-organizing/adaptive/organic 2. Sensitivity to initial conditions 3. Emergence 4. Macro pattern

41. 41 Complex Adaptive Systems and Adaptive (Self-organizing) Dynamics (cont.) 5. Feedback 6. Co-evolution 7. Pattern formation and points of influence

42. 42 Implications for Evaluation and Action 1. Small differences can create large effects. 2. The past influences but does not predict the future. 3. Many points of influence exist. 4. Boundaries, differences, and relationships are levers of influence toward a purpose.

43. 43 Implications for Evaluation and Action 5. Simple rules underlie patterns. 6. Pattern-based feedback and actions are iterative. 7. Tensions are not resolved. 8. Patterns are outcomes.

44. 44 Four Stages of Evaluation Design Evaluation Shape Practice Collect Data Make Meaning from Data

45. 45

46. 46 Example: LEAP Learning through Engineering Design and Practice

47. 47 Example: LEAP Research Design Quasi-experimental design embedded in curriculum development process Pre-post assessments of Content knowledge Perceptions of engineers at work Tinkering Self-efficacy Engineering notebooks Career behaviors survey

48. 48 External Evaluation Design The external evaluation focused on: Confirmation of effectiveness Scale-up Sustainability

49. 49 Conceptual Shifts The fundamental conceptual shift in this project was from: teacher-directed de-contextualized learning to student- engaged project-based learning fixed skills and knowledge as learning outcomes to the desired outcomes being that students are actively engaged; develop the capacity to explore and figure things out; and act like an engineer.

50. 50 Confirmation of Effectiveness Knowledge and skills related to project topics and STEM concepts Enjoyment and pride in project work Development of teamwork, collaboration and workplace skills Interest in STEM courses and pursuit of STEM career and educational pathways

51. 51 Scale-Up Scale-up involved two tracks: Greater use of the curriculum within the school system Transfer of the curriculum to Boys and Girls Clubs

52. 52 Sustainability Program sustainability Sustainability of learning of participating students Sustainability of collaborations Sustainability of teaching capacity

53. 53 Program Sustainability Maintain relationships with the district Professional development for teachers Shape research related to the project Explore ways to continue project at 9 th grade Track STEM course selection of project students in high school Collaborate on additional community dissemination and funding

54. 54 Sustainability of Learning of Students Classroom Extracurricular activities Career-related activities Focused attention through high school Continued involvement of university faculty and students Continued contact with science center

55. 55 Sustainability of Collaborations Use current collaborations to spur others over time

56. 56 Sustainability of Teaching Capacity Build capacity through formal and informal professional development approaches Training for new teachers Coaching by master teachers Summer professional development activities Technology enhanced training

57. 57 Example 2 Communities of Learning, Inquiry, and Practice (CLIPs) (video at www.insites.org/clip)

58. 58 Example 3 Strengthening Families

59. 59 Strengthening Families Protective Factors Parental resilience Social connections Concrete support in time of need Knowledge of parenting and child development Social and emotional competence of child

60. 60

61. 61 World Café Exercise What data gathering and/or analysis tools have you found helpful in gaining a deeper understanding of complex systems or interventions? What practices help you develop your capacity to recognize patterns? Do certain practices seem more related to finding surface patterns and others more related to finding deep patterns?

62. 62 Contact Information Beverly Parsons, Ph.D. bparsons@insites.org (360) 638-1442 bparsons@insites.org Meg Hargreaves, Ph.D. mhargreaves@mathematica-mpr.com (617) 301-8994 mhargreaves@mathematica-mpr.com