1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Mar. 29, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
171.0
168.4
174.6
176.6
174.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,076
Beg. Stocks
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,127
Imports 32 67 57 50
Total Supply
15,479
15,401
16,942
16,947
16,253
Feed & Residual
5,280
5,120
5,473
5,550
5,475
Ethanol
5,200
5,224
5,432
5,575
5,650
Food, Seed, & Other
1,401
1,422
1,450
1,470
1,495
Exports
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,748
13,664
14,649
14,820
14,520
Ending Stocks
1,733
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.70
3.61
3.36
3.35
3.40
Source: USDA, with adjustments for 2018 acreage 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
83.3
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
47.5
48.0
52.0
49.1
48.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,272
Beg. Stocks 92
191
197
302
555
Imports 33 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,052
4,140
4,515
4,718
4,852
Crush
1,873
1,886
1,901
1,960
1,980
Seed & Residual
146
122
139
138
135
Exports
1,842
1,936
2,174
2,065
2,300
Total Use
3,862
3,944
4,213
4,163
4,415
Ending Stocks
437
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
8.95
9.47
9.30
9.25
Source: USDA , with adjustments for 2018 acreage 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Corn Stocks
Units: Billion bushels
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. Soybean Stocks
Units: Billion bushels
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

8. South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 8 8

9. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 9 9

10. Projected Corn Acres Top: 2018 Acreage Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS 10 10

11. Projected Soybean Acreage
Top: 2018 Acreage Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS 11 11

12. Acreage Shifts
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS 12 12

15. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

16. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

18. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

20. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Ethanol Production
Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

25. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

26. Current Corn Futures
4.13
4.10
3.56
Source: CME Group, 3/29/2018

27. Current Soybean Futures
10.26
9.89
9.53
Source: CME Group, 3/29/2018

28. 2017/18 Crop Margins

29. 2018/19 Crop Margins

30. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

31. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: