1. Social Change: The 1975-1989 birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Social Change: The birth cohort: Evidence from the BHPS
BSA Conference Cardiff
17th April 2009
Susan Murray, University of Stirling

2. Contextual background
Growing up in the 1990s
Changes in the early 21st century
Persistent inequality
Intragenerational movement
Intergenerational movement
Differences in unemployment, higher education etc. The routes young people are taking. Use a quote: claims of what is happening (individualised society, everyone now free to make their own choices?) Perhaps use the Stratification in Higher Education book for this. Could also show contrasting claims to show polemical views.
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3. 21st century transitions
‘Sociologists of youth are generally in agreement that the background against which young people grew up in the closing decades of the twentieth century was transformed, and is now radically different from earlier decades’ (Gayle, Lambert, Murray forthcoming)
What’s different? Gayle proffers that the economy as well as education and training characterise the 1990s. Examples of the changes that may have affected the choices made by the rising 16s at there first point of choice aged 16 can be suggested among changes in the curriculum, organisation of qualifications. For example, highers changing to intermediate 1 & 2.
New Labour coming to power in 1997 brought about policy changes (often cited as centred around social exclusion). These changes only came into fruition in the late nineties, therefore only beginning to affect those finishing post compulsory schooling at that time. the rising 16s (91-05) can we see a change over this time?
Also, another example of policy introduction is the New Deal for Young People(1998). For year olds- would this affect post 16 choices? Still no benefits for under 18s.
Lastly, yet very importantly, the introduction of the minimum wage in 1999 for (extended to include year olds)
So how do these changes affect the post-16 choices of the rising 16s.
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

4. Characteristics of unweighted sample of rising 16s
Gender n %
Male
1193
53.33
Female
1044
46.67
Ethnicity
White (UK)
2043
91.33
Black-Caribbean/ Black-other 22
0.98
Black-African 12
0.54
Indian 31
1.39
Pakistani/ Bangladeshi 23
1.03
Other 54
2.41
Missing 52
2.32
Qualifications
Any GCSEs at 16 (A-C)
1388
62.05
Any GCSEs at 16 (D-G)
1320
59.01
GCSEs 5+ at 16 (A-C)
1215
54.31
Source: BHPS waves 1-16 rising 16s
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5. 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Constant
3.06(0.20)
2.68(0.21)
2.78(0.22)
4.33(0.34)
4.89(0.10)
3.59(0.22)
4.34(0.36)
4.55 (0.35)
4.56(0.35)
Gender (Girls) -
0.97(0.19)
1.03(0.19)
0.95(0.19)
0.94(0.19)
0.90(0.19)
0.89(0.19)
Ethnicity
Black Carib/
Black-other
-1.04
(1.83)
Black African
-0.30
(1.38)
Indian
0.96
(0.84)
Pakistani/Bangladeshi
0.21
(1.16)
Other minority
-0.19
(0.62)
Family stratification(Cam Scale) MRJ
0.04
(0.01)
0.03
0.02
Tenure (Social renters)
-2.53
(0.31)
-1.91
(0.32)
-1.57
-1.51
Parent’s education
Mum graduate
1.03
(0.34)
0.49
(0.36)
Dad graduate
0.93
(0.35)
0.53
(0.38)
Mum qualified
-0.76
(0.22)
-0.81
-0.95
(0.20)
Dad qualified
-1.05
-0.47
(0.24)
-0.63
Gender*class interaction
0.01
(0.003)
Adj R2
0.047
0.063
0.074
0.086
0.042
0.069
0.101
0.098 N
1500
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6. 17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Multiple regression models for number of A*-C GCSEs comparing employment status for the Registrar General Social Classification
 Employment Status
Family Class
Model 1
Model 2
Current
Managerial/Technical
-.7887*
Skilled non-manual
-.9418*
skilled manual
-1.854***
partly skilled manual
-2.623***
unskilled
-2.267**
Most Recent
-1.095**
-1.378***
-2.209***
-2.876***
-2.453**
Constant
5.901***
6.239*** N
1471 r2
r2_a
Logliklihood
-4038
-4033
bic
8120
8109
Source: BHPS waves 1-16; subsample of the ‘rising 16s’.
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7. Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year
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8. Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year (with confidence intervals)
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9. Quasi Variance for school year
Explain quasi variance
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10. Figures for pupils gaining 5+ A*-C GCSE grades
Year on year rising 16 results compared with national figures
All pupils
Rising 16s %
National Figures
1991
46.0(36-56)
36.8
1992
62.3(55-70)
38.3
1993
48.7(42-56)
41.2
1994
63.8(56-72)
43.3
1995
43.1(35-51)
43.5
1996
55.4(48-63)
44.5
1997
52.4(44-60)
45.1
1998
50.5(41-60)
46.3
1999
59.1(52-66)
47.9
2000
56.3(49-63)
49.2
2001
61.3(55-68)
50.0
2002
51.6
2003
67.1(60-74)
52.9
2004
47.6(41-54)
53.7
2005
53.0(46-60)
56.3
Source: BHPS waves 1-16; 95% CI around proportion in brackets
Source:
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11. Logit
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12. Process
To move away from the common outcomes of destination and focus on process, direction and the tracks and trajectories of young people early on in their careers.
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13. Outcome variables Eligibility for HE/FE
Participation in post-16 education
Early labour market outcomes (first, current, last)
Combination of labour market outcomes and educational attainment
Predicted trajectories
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14. Back to the future: Youth Panel
School year
Plans not to stay in education (n)
 Plans to stay in education(n)
Total (n)
1995 33 74
107
1996 32
132
164
1997 25 98
123
1998 31 73
104
1999 24
114
138
2000 26 93
119
2001
125
156
2002 16
112
128
2003 14
106
120
2004 30
131
161
2005 38
103
141
Total
300
1,161
1,461
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15. Rising 16s: five years on (%)
Status at 21 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Employed
60.9
50.7
48.6
49.2
58.0
49.3
47.1
56.7
48.1
48.9
39.3
Unemployed
7.8
6.5
5.0
9.5
3.4
12.5
4.2
11.1
3.8
5.3
14.1
8.5
Fulltime student
28.2
37.0
41.4
34.9
31.9
34.6
44.5
25.6
43.1
38.9
33.3
37.3
Other
3.2
5.8
6.4
6.7
3.7
6.9
13.3
5.6
Total
100

16. Research funded by the ESRC
17th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff
Research funded by the ESRC
Many thanks.