1. Economic Turmoil & Trade Liberalization
Implications for Extension & Applied Research
Organized Symposium
AAEA Annual Meetings
Tampa, Florida
July 30-August 2, 2000
Parr Rosson, Professor & Director
Center for North American Studies
Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Texas A&M University

2. Overview Long Term Trade Outlook Results of Ag. Leadership Survey
Issues & Prospects
Implications

3. Long Term Trade Outlook
85% of Grain & Meat Consumption Growth Will Occur Outside Developed Nations through 2020
Most Increases in Production Will Have to Be From Higher Yields, NOT Area
Significant Price Increases NOT Projected

5. Share of Global Increase in Meat Consumption, 1995-2020
119 Million Metric Ton Increase
Rest of Asia
12.8%
China
Developed
40.6%
15.4%
SSA
5.0% LA
India
WANA
16.4%
4.3%
5.6%
Source: CHOICES Fourth Quarter 1999

6. Real Prices of Selected Products (1990 Base)
$/Metric Ton
$148
Wheat
$146
$133
$275
Rice
$293
2010
$252
$126
2020
Maize
$127
$123
$263
Soybeans
$244
$234
$2023
Beef
$1835
$1768
$1366
Pork
$1260
$1209
$1300
Poultry
$1175
$1157
$234
Milk
$217
$199 $0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
Source: CHOICES Fourth Quarter 1999

7. U.S. Agricultural Exports by Region$3
Mexico $3 $7
O. Latin America
$18
1990
W. Europe $9 $4
Asia $5
All Others $9
$28
1995
$11 $6 $5 $8
$21
1998
$11 $6 $4 $7
$20
1999
$11 $0 $5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Billion Dollars
Source: FATUS, selected issues.

9. Top Three FTAA Issues, Survey Southern Region, April-June, 1999
39%
US Farm Pgms/Import Protection
37%
Market Access/Sanctions
34%
SPS/TBT/GMO
33%
Other
32%
Foreign Govts.
22%
Compliance/Dispute Resolution 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Source: S-287 and Extension International Trade Task Force. N=100

10. Future Program Interests Survey, Southern Region, April-June, 1999
Ag.Trade Situation
70%
Trade & Environment
60%
Interact with US Policy Makers
54%
Applied Research Results
54%
Trade Impacts
53%
Food Safety
52%
Trade Negotiation Process
47% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Source: S-287 and Extension International Trade Task Force. N=100