1. NORC at The University of Chicago
New Trend in the U.S. Mortality: Gompertzialization of Mortality Trajectory
Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
Center on Aging
NORC at The University of Chicago
Chicago, Illinois, USA

2. Three scenarios for mortality at advanced ages
Source: Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The Biology of Life Span:
A Quantitative Approach, NY: Harwood Academic Publisher, 1991

3. Earlier studies suggested that the exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase.

4. Mortality deceleration at advanced ages
After age 95, the observed risk of death [red line] deviates from the values predicted by the Gompertz law [black line].
Mortality of Swedish women for the period of from the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality
Source: Gavrilov, Gavrilova, “Why we fall apart. Engineering’s reliability theory explains human aging”. IEEE Spectrum

5. Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File
North American Actuarial Journal, 2011, 15(3):

6. More recent birth cohort mortality
Nelson-Aalen monthly estimates of hazard rates using Stata 11

7. The second studied dataset: U. S
The second studied dataset: U.S. cohort death rates taken from the Human Mortality Database

8. Nature (2016)
Based on data from the International Database on Longevity (IDL)
Note: After 2000 number of supercentenarians exposed to death in IDL rapidly declines

9. Two Current Trends

10. Improvement of age reporting
Trend #1
Improvement of age reporting

11. Is Mortality Deceleration Caused by Age Misreporting?
It was demonstrated that age misstatement biases mortality estimates downwards at the oldest ages, which contributes to mortality deceleration (Preston et al., 1999).
If this hypothesis is correct then mortality deceleration should be more prevalent among historically older birth cohorts

12. Historical Evolution of Mortality Trajectories 1880-1899 U. S
Historical Evolution of Mortality Trajectories U.S. birth cohorts. Men BIC values for fitting Gompertz and Kannisto models
Fitting age-specific cohort death rates taken from the Human Mortality Database

13. 1880-1899 U.S. birth cohorts. Women BIC values for fitting Gompertz and Kannisto models
Fitting age-specific cohort death rates taken from the Human Mortality Database

14. Conclusion
Mortality deceleration is more prevalent in historically older birth cohorts when age reporting was less accurate

15. No mortality improvement for centenarians
Trend #2
No mortality improvement for centenarians
Found for Swedish and UK centenarians

16. Mortality of Male Centenarians Does Not Decline Over Time
100 90 80 70 60
Mortality of U.S. Men at 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years
Based on data from the Human Mortality Database

17. Mortality of Female Centenarians Does Not Decline Over Time
100 90 80 70 60
Mortality of U.S. Women at 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years
Based on data from the Human Mortality Database

18. Conclusions
Gompertzialization of old-age mortality trajectories over time.
Mortality stagnation over time for centenarians.
These two trends may lead to accelerating pattern of mortality increase with age
As a result, the number of centenarians in the future may be significantly lower than expected

19. Acknowledgments This study was made possible thanks to:
generous support from the
National Institute on Aging (R01 AG028620)
Stimulating working environment at the Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

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