1. Testing seasonal adjustment using Demetra+
Satybekova G.B.
National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan

2. Check of the original time series
Original time series are:
Accurate
Long, for the years , in average annual prices of the year 2000 (2000=100)
Of good quality and correspond to the international standards
Consecutive
October 2011

3. Graphs that show seasonality
Periodogram
Chart
Auto-Regressive Spectrum
TSChart
There is a seasonal factor in the original dynamic range
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4. Describe choice of the approach and predictors
Approach used TRAMO/SEATS
Certain national holidays were selected
Automatically was selected specification - RSA5
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5. Models used
Information on pre-treatment:
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6. Graphs of the results
Yes, seasonal component was lost in the irregularity
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7. Check for the sliding seasonal factor
How to check the ratio of the sliding seasonal factor?
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8. Main diagnostic of quality
Basic test – compared the annual total value of the original series and the series adjusted for seasonal variations. This value should be close to zero
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9. Residual seasonal factor
Yes, there is residual seasonal factor after the adjustment
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10. Stability of the model
Model is stable
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11. Remains Remains of the normal distribution They are random
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12. Some problematic series (if there were any)?
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13. Evaluate the ability to publish the results
Need to learn from users about their needs and to expand their knowledge and understanding of the seasonal adjustment
We think that it is too early to publish, we need to have certainty in the quality of the seasonal adjustment results received
October 2011

14. Conclusion
We need to have training, during the next seminar on how to analyse results of the seasonal adjustment
How to document and publish the results
October 2011