1. Market Outlook ISU Extension Swine In-Service Ames, Iowa Mar. 29, 2012
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
94.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
164.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
14,270
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
801
Imports 14 8 28 20 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,506
15,086
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,600
5,200
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,950
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,405
1,420
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,700
1,900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,705
13,470
Ending Stocks
1,616
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.20
5.00
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
43.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
3,250
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
275
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,286
3,540
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,615
1,660
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
120
126
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,275
1,550
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,011
3,335
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.00
11.50
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
63.2
59.2
53.6
54.4
58.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.9
44.5
46.3
43.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,499
2,218
2,207
1,999
2,165
Beg. Stocks
306
657
976
862
825
Imports
127
119 97
120
Total Supply
2,932
2,993
3,279
2,982
3,110
Food
927
919
926
930
935
Seed 78 69 71 82 83
Feed & Residual
255
150
132
145
180
Exports
1,015
879
1,289
1,000
975
Total Use
2,275
2,018
2,417
2,157
2,173
Ending Stocks
937
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.78
4.87
5.70
7.30
6.30
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 4 4

5. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA 7 7

8. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 3/28/2012

9. Change of Export Pace

10. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

12. Situation Facing Hog Producers in 2012
Higher feed prices for most of year
Corn: $5.80-$6.60/bu in 2011/ $5.18 in 2010/2011
Soybean meal: $290-$320/ton in 2011/ $345 in 2010/2011
Feed prices should moderate moving into 2012/13 crop year
Source: USDA-ERS

13. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

14. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

15. Pork Production Will Increase
Billion Pounds
* Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS

16. Hog Inventory Increased
Million Head
* Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS

17. Only Modest Growth in Sows Farrowing
Million Head
* Quarters 1-2 NASS Reported ,
Quarters 3-4 Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS

18. Growth in Pigs per Litter Continues
1.8 %
1.9 %
1.7 %
Head
2.2 %
2.1 %
1.5 %
*Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS

19. Canada’s Hog Inventory & Weak Dollar Will Limit Imports
Million Head
Million Head
* Slaughter and Imports Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS

20. 2011 Pork Exports Were A Record
* Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS 20

21. Hog Prices
Dollars per cwt
* Forecast
Source: USDA-ERS

22. Planted Area for the 8 Majors
Source: USDA-ERS

23. Corn Use for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

24. Crop Prices for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

25. Current Futures
Source: CME Group, 3/26/2012

26. Livestock Production for the Next Decade
Source: USDA-ERS

27. Per Capita Consumption
Source: USDA-ERS

28. Prices
Source: USDA-ERS

29. Returns Over Cash Costs
Source: USDA-ERS

30. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: