1. Development of short-term business demography statistics Koen De Backer STD OECD Short Term Economic Statistics Expert Group Paris, 10 September 2009

2. Entrepreneurship Indicators Programme (EIP) (1)
cooperation between OECD, Eurostat and the Kauffman Foundation
- started in 2006, first results published in 2008
- internationally comparable indicators on entrepreneurship and business demography
firm birth and deaths, survival…
high growth enterprises and gazelles

3. Entrepreneurship Indicators Programme (EIP) (2)
based on business registers, data provided by National Statistical Officies
EIP produces solid but rather late indicators
official (NSOs) and validated indicators
not timely: 2-3 years time lag
A high demand for more timely entrepreneurship indicators:
- financial crisis;
short term, leading indicators

4. A first alternative: using timely administrative data
Chambers of Commerce, Business Associations…
Trying to establish correlation between EIP indicators and these timely data series
Eurostat exercise
Finland, Hungary, Italy and Spain
Births, deaths, firm population
Overall stong correlation/coherence between different series
But problems of different classification systems/completeness

5. A second alternative: using Labour Force Surveys
Scoping study using EU data for demonstrated feasibility of using LFS data to create:
(a) monthly/quarterly estimates of self-employment and/or business ownership rates
(b) quarterly estimates of self-employment ‘start-up’ rates
(c) self-employment ‘survival’ rates

6. Examples – UK: ‘start-ups’

7. ‘Survival rates’ Probability of Remaining in Self-Employment by Quarter – UK, 2000-2006

8. Feasible, but… Differences in target groups:
LFS: self employed
EIP: employer enterprises
Differences in definitions:
LFS: entry, exit…
EIP: birth, death..
Statistical problems
small sample sizes create volatile start-up rates
survival rates based on incrementally smaller responses
no seasonally adjusted
trend estimates for start ups? Averaging over time of survival rates?