1. Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection
Matthew Elkins

2. A Theory on Relativity
Matt 99
10,000
100 99

3. Definition of the Denominator
Deterministic 99
25,000
24,999 ?
Probabilistic

4. Applied to Electricity
Expected Generation
25,000

5. Probability Distribution

6. Expected Margin
Margin 25%

7. Reduced Margin

8. Reduced Margin
Margin 5%

9. Probabilities

10. Reduced Margin

11. Independent Probability
Vulnerabilities
~50%
Independent Probability
P(A) * P(B)
~50% X ~50% = ~25% MW

12. Risk Analysis

13. Increased Supply Variability
Generation Outages
Transmission Outages
Fuel Adequacy
Misoperations

14. Increased Risk

15. Increased Risk