1. Number of recorded murders per month, 1994-99

2. % individuals experiencing crime, by age (1997)

3. % of victims who knew the offender

4. Number of recorded assaults per month, 1994-99

5. Crime rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

6. Murder rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

7. Aggravated robbery rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

8. Rape rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

9. Burglary rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

10. Reasons for high crime levels & future scenarios
Period of transition
Cycles of violence
Proliferation of firearms
Organised crime
Rapid urbanisation & income inequality
Youthful population
Weak criminal justice system

11. Conviction rate (all offences) per 100,000 of the population, 1995/96

12. Age distribution, South Africa (1996)

13. CJS Performance Cases recorded in 2000 2 575 617
Cases referred to court
(24%)
Convictions: (8%)

14. No. of SAPS officers and violent crimes, 1996-2000

15. No. of prosecutions, convictions, referrals and crimes recorded

16. Number of DCS personnel and prisoners, 1994-2000
Staff and cell accomm - reflects resources for DCS
Prisoners - reflects Workload :
Since 1995 the increase in the prison population has been much greater than the increase in the resources to hold and manage the prisoners.
This in turn, will negatively effect performance of DCS - overcrowding impacts on the effective supervision, management and monitoring of prisoners.

17. Future crime scenario: Positive developments
More effective criminal justice system, dependant on:
Communication
Credibility
Capacity
Focus of law enforcement & legislation on organised crime
Transitional period ending
Slowdown in urbanisation rate

18. Future crime scenario: Unknown
Proliferation of firearms
Firearms Control Act
Developments in Angola and DRC
Eastward NATO expansion

19. Future crime scenario: Negative developments
Cycles of violence
Changing age demographics
Effect of HIV/AIDS epidemic

20. Number of AIDS orphans (millions) in SA, 1998-2010

21. Conclusion
Decline of crime where impact of criminal justice system is strong
Continued high level of crimes driven by ‘culture of violence’
Increase in certain crimes because of HIV/AIDS epidemic
Greater state, private sector and civil society partnership needed

22. Thank you! Institute for Security Studies http://www.iss.co.za
Sources used:
Interpol
SAPS CIAC
Stats SA national Victims of Crime Survey, 1999