1. tunneling system for transit application?
Bart Silicon Valley II – Quantified Comparative Risk Analysis
K. Davey (1), A. Moergeli (2), R. J. F. Goodfellow (3), J. J. Brady (3), S. A. Saki (3), A. D. Amo (3)
Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (1), MOERGELI CONSULTING (2), ALDEA SERVICES (3)
1. Challenge:
How to decide between a traditional Twin Bore (TB) versus an innovative Single Bore (SB)
tunneling system for transit application?
2. Approach by VTA (the Owner):
Adopt a risk-informed, quantified
Total Cost of Ownership decision-making process
3. Method by Aldea Services (Risk Manager):
Integrated schedule & cost life cycle time
comparative risk analysis, aggregated to a P80 Level
including cost of Operations & Maintenance (O&M) for first thirty years
4. Comparative results for a risk-based decision:
Comparable Base Cost for both schemes,
SB with higher but controllable construction risks,
SB selected for being community-friendly,
SB faster into revenue operation,
SB with more integrated-development opportunities
5. Outlook:
General Engineering Contractor (GEC) aboard
Application for Federal Funding in 2020
6. Your Value Added:
Learn how to generically evaluate any type of alternatives by an integrated life cycle time cost & schedule probabilistic risk analysis