1. Managing Genetics in a Shifting Tide Vern Baron, Ph. D
Managing Genetics in a Shifting Tide Vern Baron, Ph. D. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lacombe, AB
Thank-you for the opportunity to make this presentation. It is the result of a body of knowledge created and accumulated by AAFC and Alberta Agriculture and Forestry staff beginning in the 1990’s.

2. “Often, Variety Trial Entries Show Small Differences for Yield Compared to Controls”
Glenn Friesen
Not much difference in alfalfa yield among entries within a test.
Not much difference in alfalfa yield over years, relative to ‘Beaver’.
Expectations re: forage breeding programs?

3. “Often, Variety Trial Entries Show Small Differences for Yield Compared to Controls”
Glenn Friesen
“Yield improvement will be difficult to achieve if breeders are simultaneously maintaining and improving other traits” (Riday and Brummer, 2002).
- yield, nutritive value, disease and insect resistance and persistence

4. Really it’s about forage breeding realities:
Why is this so difficult? Just make the scientists do it!
Really it’s about forage breeding realities:
Reduction of heterosis due to recurrent selection for multiple traits or those other than yield (inbreeding depression).
Cutting or grazing management to achieve greater forage quality means many cuts per year, lower yield and shorter longevity. Variety never expresses maximum DM yield.

5. Long Term Decline in Hay Yields Jefferson and Selles (2007)
Over a 30-year period (1973 – 2003) average annual hay yield in Saskatchewan decreased from an average of 3.5 to 2.5 Mg ha -1 .
1 metric ton per ha or 0.5 ton per acre
Hay yield decline over this period was also observed in all provinces from Quebec west to BC.
More recent surveys and studies by BCRC has confirmed that the trend continues.
“Hay Yields on the Farm”

6. Effect of Changing Temperature on Hay Yield in Saskatchewan
Yield = 8.10 – (Δtemperature), R2 = 0.29
Climate Change Involved
Jefferson and Selles (2007)

7. Hay Yield in Saskatchewan vs. Fertilizer Price Index
Yield = 4.62 – (Price Index) R2 = 0.38
Jefferson and Selles (2007)
Producers don’t use Fertilizer-N on hay stands

8. Factors Responsible for Hay Yield Decline Jefferson and Selles (2007)
Factor or Variable
Proportion of the Variation
Percent
Fertilizer Price Index 38
Increasing Temperature (April to June) 24
Land and Buildings Value 7
Precipitation 4
Total 65
Response to increasing carbon dioxide concentration
Stand age
Species Composition and lack of rejuvenation.

9. Lost Forage Growing Area Reduces Forage Supply
In the long term
decreasing yield x fewer acres at lower yield = low winter feed supply
Growing daily winter feeding cost > $3.00 cow-day
There is a need for higher yielding forage stands

10. Tame and Seeded Pasture and Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixture Hay Area for Canada in 2016 and Lost Since 2011
2016
Lost since 2011
Loss (%)
Acres (millions)
Tame and seeded pasture
12.6
1.10 8
Alfalfa and alfalfa mixture hay
9.3
1.95 17
Total
21.9
3.05 12
Census Canada (2016)
Implications:
There is no forage surplus.
A huge amount of soil carbon is being lost.
For now, a shrinking market for varieties.

11. Adapting to and Managing the Growing Season in Different and Changing Environments and Systems

12. Using the Growing Season
Effect of planting date on time of harvest for silage in central Alberta
CORN
20, June
13, June
6, June
30, May
23, May
16, May
9, May
Wapiti
TRITICALE
Murphy
A.C.
OAT
Vivar
BARLEY
Lacombe
A.C.
Alfalfa cut 1
Alfalfa cut 2
Critical period
Graze
Grain
Winter Cereal
24-April May June July August September October
Harvest Date
■ Vegetative ■ Filling

13. Yield and Quality Curve of Alfalfa
Low Lignin Quality
Forage Quality
Yield
Within growing season with genetic transformation

14. 3 vs 4 cutting by Sept 1 effect on alfalfa yield, Arlington, Wisconsin
1st cutting
2nd cutting
3rd cutting
4th cutting
Season Total
2nd year
3 cut
2.97
2.43
2.15
----
7.55
4 cut
1.66
1.48
1.71
1.68
6.53
3rd year
2.32
1.53
1.24
5.09
1.31
1.18
0.75
0.83
4.07
17%
25%
Varieties: 2555ML 3B DK 127 MAGNUM III MULTIKING 1 NG-330 PROOF
Conducted in , only 1994 and 1995 data presented because one treatment lost in 1996
Within growing season with genetic transformation

15. Winter-Hardy Alfalfa vs. Yield
Fall Dormancy = Winter hardiness?
Dormancy = Low Regrowth yield
Can we increase later cut yield or pasture regrowth by reducing dormancy?

16. Summary of Risk Factors Affecting Winter Survival for Alfalfa
Acclimation
Decreasing Day Length
Cooler Temp
Belanger et al. (2006)

17. Growing Season in Growing Degree Days vs. Latitude Across Canada
Dormancy Occurs Earlier in the Fall as Latitude Increases
Reduced Dormancy Increases Regrowth Yield
49.4
51.5
50.2
48.8
52.3
55.0

18. Alfalfa Winter-Kill at Locations Across Canada with Populations Adapted to Dormancy Regions 1 to 4

19. Improved Cold Tolerance
Anik
Caribou TF3
Improved Cold Tolerance
Very Dormant
Rhizoma FV
Yellowhead
Yellowhead D1
Reduced dormancy
Old Stand Grown at 58 o L

20. Percent Winter-kill From Three Short-Season Locations in Spring 2018
Var. / Pop.
Lacombe
Swift Current,
Normandin
_____________Percent dead plants _____________
Beaver 13 6 7
Vernal 34 11 4
Caribou TF3 9 1
Rhizoma FV 5 2
Yellowh D1
Yellowhead
Anik
Bertrand, Claessens, Lajeunesse, Baron and Schellenberg

21. Alfalfa Regrowth yield from three short-season locations in 2018
Var. / Pop.
Lacombe
Swift Current,
Normandin
____________________________kg ha-1____________________
Beaver
6462
1504
6954
Vernal
6405
1059
6494
Caribou TF3
6751
1325
7189
Rhizoma FV
6105
1143
7622
Yellowh D1
6640
1568
6977
Yellowhead
4828
678
2566
Anik
2534
1101
686
Bertrand, Claessens, Lajeunesse, Baron and Schellenberg

22. Normal and Reduced Dormancy Yellowhead at Lacombe Alberta
Normal Yellowhead
RD Yellowhead

23. Another reality: What will be used in 15 to 20 years?
It takes a long time for variety development and testing. The market for the seed and the physical environment for the new variety will have changed from the time the cross is made. (20 years plus)
Modelling farming systems affected by climate change

24. Projections for Alfalfa, Corn and Barley Silage DM Yields Estimated for Climate Change Scenarios for Central Alberta Dairy Farms
Crop- Silage
___________________________Climatic Scenario_____________________
Now
2030 (Near-term)
2060 (Longer term)
______________________________________Mg ha-1________________________
Alfalfa
7.7
11.0
10.1
Corn
11.5
18.1
17.3
Barley
6.7
6.8
Thivierge et al. (2017) using the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM).

25. Summary
Increasing yield through breeding new forage varieties is difficult.
Decreasing yield in ‘on farm” hay production is due to past and current farm management decisions not failures in plant breeding.
Agronomic and management research may enhance the value of new genetic transformations.
Agronomic and crop physiology research may help indentify “bottlenecks’ within growing season production that can be used regionally and globally.
Modelling future climates may assist in projecting phenotypic and genotypic plant types that can thrive in the future, regionally and globally.

27. Harvest Timing Based on 450 Degree Day Interval at & Locations Across Canada

29. Alfalfa

31. Hay Yield Trends in Saskatchewan
Jefferson and Selles (2007)
Yield = – R2 = 0.36

32. The Market for New Forage and Feed Varieties

33. What motivates producers to buy forage seed?
Government “conservation” programs often motivate producers to buy forage seed.

34. Winter Feed
Source Decrease
- 17%
1.95 million acres

35. 1.1 million acres (-8 %)

36. Yield Curve of Alfalfa
Yield
Within growing season with genetic transformation

37. Yield and Quality Curve of Alfalfa
Forage Quality
Yield
Within growing season with genetic transformation