1. The Dynamics of Poverty Graduation and Resilience in Northern Kenya
October 2018
COURTENAY CABOT VENTON
CATHERINE FITZGIBBON

2. Objective
To understand the dynamics and feasibility of graduation, using data from Household Economy Analysis (HEA), in northern Kenya
To specifically evaluate the feasibility and likelihood of graduation for different livelihood zones and wealth groups encompassing 3 million people in Turkana, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera Counties.

3. USAID Analysis on the Economics of Resilience
Resilience building would save upwards of $1.3 billion over a 15 year period, or $84 million per year.
Benefit to Cost Ratio $2.8:1

4. HEA Livelihood Zones Turkana
Turkana Border Pastoral; Turkana Central Pastoral
Kerio Riverine Agropastoral; Turkwel Riverine Agropastoral
Lodwar Urban Zone
Garissa
Riverine Agropastoral
Former Pastoralists
Mandera
North East Agropastoral
North East Pastoral
Wajir
Southern Grassland Pastoral

5. Modelling ’Graduation’

6. Three Scenarios We evaluated three scenarios:
Counterfactual – no response
Safety Net Transfer (“stabilization”) – SN transfer of $300 per hh is provided every year, to every very poor and poor household.
Investment Scenario (“growth”) - $450 investment fund transferred to each household in year 1, assumed to yield 30% ROI per year, with a SN for 2 years
Explain rationale for 30% return

7. Bay Bakol Agropastoral High Potential (BAPHP – Poor HHs)
HEA Model
Bay Bakol Agropastoral High Potential (BAPHP – Poor HHs)

8. Impact on Deficits
The range is from 0 to 15 across all scenarios

9. Size of Investment Pot Required

10. Pastoral Livelihood Zones
Poorer pastoral wealth groups = least resilient
Better off groups have livestock holdings times larger than the very poor.
Very poor pastoralists in Turkana Pastoral have deficits for less years than the poor – less dependent on drought affected livestock and greater mix of “other”
Potential for growth of investments is low as livestock income rainfall dependent - so variable

11. Agro-Pastoral Livelihood Zones
Mixed results, with Turkana AP doing much better than North-East AP or Garissa Riverine
High levels of investment in irrigation in the Turkana agro-pastoral zones have resulted in relatively reliable yields, as compared with primarily rain-fed agriculture in the other regions.

12. Difference in Agro-pastoral LZs Kerio Riverine, Poor, $0 Investment

13. Difference in Agro-pastoral LZs Garissa Riverine, Poor, $3,000 Investment

14. Urban Livelihood Zones
Most resilient
Almost no income is reliant on rainfed agriculture but earned year by year.
Highlights the importance of small towns in generating productive trade and livelihood opportunities.
Far greater range of “other” income sources available in towns

15. Key Characteristics of Resilience USAID 2018, Resilience Evidence Forum Report
Livelihoods-based
Agency-based
Financial inclusion
Diversification of livelihood risk
Sustainability of natural resources
Access to markets
Social capital
Aspirations, Self-efficacy, and confidence to adapt
Women’s empowerment and gender equality

16. Resilience and Income All Very Poor and Poor Groups
Some Very Poor and Poor Groups
Middle and Better Off Groups
Charcoal production and sale
Collection and sale of firewood
Collection and sale of construction materials
Collection and sale of gums and resins
Herding livestock
Water pan digging
Weaving mats and roof thatch
Selling water
Handicrafts
Construction work
Domestic labour
Labour migration
Petty or wholesale trading
Kiosk or shop
Property/ land rental
Skilled construction
Formal job - Govt or NGO
Restaurant / café / guesthouse
Need to differentiate between;
Irregular, low income, low return ‘other’
Regular, higher income, better return ‘other’

17. Value of Markets and Infrastructure

18. The Catch-22 of Graduation
LZ code
LZ name
Number of Years with Deficit with a Safety Net
Size of Investment Fund Required
Likelihood of Achieving Growth from Existing Income sources VP P
TBP
Turkana Border Pastoral LZ 4 7
$1100
$1600
Low
TCP
Turkana Central Pastoral LZ 13 1
$1800
$600
KAP
Kerio Riverine Agropastoral LZ
$400 $0
Medium
TAP
Turkwel Riverine Agropastoral LZ
LUZ
Lodwar Urban Livelihood Zone
High
NEA-Man7
North-East Agropastoral LZ - Mandera County 15
$2500
NEA-Waj7
North-East Agropastoral LZ - Wajir County 11 2
$200
NEP-Man9
North-East Pastoral LZ - Mandera 3
$700
NEP-Waj9
North-East Pastoral LZ - Wajir
WSG-Waj10
Wajir Southern Grassland Pastoral LZ - Wajir County
$2600
$2400
GRV-Gar10
Garissa Riverine LZ - Garissa 12
$3200
$3000
GFP-Gar10
Garissa Former Pastoralists - Garissa County peri urban
$500

19. Conclusions
Household deficits are highly differentiated across livelihood zones and wealth groups, and also from year to year.
’Graduation’ is not binary or linear – households flow in and out of poverty graduation, and resilience plays a fundamental role in ensuring that households can cope with changes without external assistance.
Safety nets are fundamental to supporting household consumption needs, and are preventing far greater impacts of disaster. BUT, they are insufficient for graduation

20. Recommendations
Consider how HEA tools can be used to better understand differences in resilience and potential for graduation when expanding and scaling government safety net programmes;
Pilot a two-year time limit for safety net assistance plus a resilience intervention for appropriate households

21. Recommendations Cont.
Household level resilience programmes must consider the following;
The potential for increasing the productivity and income from household’s existing economic activities;
The potential to generate sustainable incomes from alternative economic activities; and
The wider operating environment and the presence of other sources of resilience, including infrastructure/markets, skills and training, and support systems and mechanisms that build social capital and agency – that effect the sustainability of any economic activity.