1. Robert CHUNG The University of Hong Kong
WORKSHOP ON DELIBERATIVE DEMOCRACY, PUBLIC CONSULTATION, AND THE MEDIA 10 July The Politics of Collating Public Opinion: Two Cases of Misrepresentation of Public Opinion in Hong Kong
This is a new course.
This course may not be opened again.
Therefore, this course is unique.
Every student is unique. …
Robert CHUNG
The University of Hong Kong

2. Historical Setting of the 1988 Incident
1982: Talks on the future of Hong Kong.
1984: Major review of HK’s constitutional development; Sino-British Joint Declaration signed.
1987: Another review of constitutional reform – the question of 1988 direct elections.
Green Paper, White Paper, direction elections deferred to 1991.
Hong Kong government faked opinion data in support of the delay.
1988 – 1991 – 1995 – 1997 – 2002 …

3. Historical Setting of the 2003 Incident
2002 July: HKSAR Chief Executive entered 2nd term of office.
2002 Sep: Proposals to Implement Article 23 of the Basic Law.
2003 Jan: Compendium of Submissions.
HKSAR Government faked opinion data again.
2003 Feb: National Security Bill.
2003 July 1: 500,000 people took to the street.
2003 July 5: Government insisted on legislation on July 9.
2003 July 6: One key cabinet member resigned.
2003 July 7: Government postponed legislation.
2003 July 16: Key officials resigned.
2003 Sep 5: Government withdrew the Bill from the legislative programme.

4. Strategy of British HK Government (1988)
131,589 submissions grouped into 3 categories:
Submissions from organizations and individuals
Opinion surveys
Petitions
Cat 1: pre-printed forms (73,767) lumped with individual submissions, boosting opposition rate
Cat 2: Two biased opinion polls conducted by a marketing firm, to prove marginal public opposition
Cat 3: Petitions considered not rational (21 petitions – 23,866 supporters vs 295 opponents)
Result: 3-0 “support” became a 1-2 marginal “opposition”

5. Strategy of HKSAR Government (2003)
100,909 submissions made by 369,612 individuals and over 1,000 organizations
Categorization by type:
Submissions from organizations
Submissions from individuals
Submissions in the form of standard letters and pre-printed opinion forms
Signature forms
Categorization by inclination, government conclusion: 67.5% support, 28.2% opposed, 4.3% unclear
BUT if we count names/signatures (embedded in all submissions), conclusion should be 36.9% support, 60.2% opposed, 2.8% unclear

6. Conclusion
Democracy is the rule of the people by the people, but Hong Kong has never been a democracy, before or after 1997.
Undemocratic governments needs the backing of public opinion to justify its legitimacy, so they are always tempted to fake opinion research findings.
Thus a strong need for professional standards in conducting surveys and running public consultations.