1. NATIONAL HUMAN CAPITAL FOR SCIENCE, ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY PLAN
PRESENTATION TO THE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 06 MARCH 2007
THE YEAR OF THE HUMAN CAPITAL
29-Apr-19

2. World Development Report, 1999
For countries in the vanguard of the world economy, the balance between knowledge and resources has shifted so far towards the former that knowledge has become perhaps the most important factor determining the standard of living - more than land, than tools, than labour. Today's most technologically advanced economies are truly knowledge-based.
World Development Report, 1999
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3. Department of Trade and Industry, 1998)
A knowledge-driven economy is one in which the generation and exploitation of knowledge play the predominant part in the creation of wealth"
(United Kingdom
Department of Trade and Industry, 1998)
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4. KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY RESOURCE-BASED ECONOMY
TRANSFORMATION
KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY
RESOURCE-BASED ECONOMY
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5. KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY
Knowledge is the basic form of capital
Knowledge generation, accumulation and exploitation: Innovation
Economic growth is driven by Innovation
Key driver for Innovation is “high-end” human capital: Ph.D
Ph.D as the key foundation for achieving the objectives of the National System of Innovation
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6. KEY CHALLENGES Increase the number of knowledge workers: Researchers
Increase the productivity of researchers
Address inequalities: Race, gender, regional & institutional distribution
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7. KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMIES
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8. PhD's in S&E per 1 000 in the age group 25-34 (2000)
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9. Doctoral enrolments and graduations (2000 – 2005)
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10. Doctoral graduates by gender (2000 – 2005)
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11. PhD graduates - Years to completion (All fields: 2000 - 2005)
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12. Years to completion by field (2000 – 2005)
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13. RESEARCH OUTPUT… Scientific Journals
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14. RESEARCH OUTPUT… Field of Study
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15. RESEARCH OUTPUT… International Comparison
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16. RESEARCH OUTPUT…Patents
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17. RESEARCH OUTPUT…Patents
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18. 20 YR STRATEGIC DESTINATION… Addressing Key Challenges
Number of Researchers with Ph.D
1200 Ph.D/yr – 6,000 to 12,000 Ph.D/yr (Total)
561 Ph.D/yr - 3,000 to 6,000 Ph.D/yr (SET)
Proportion of articles in Scientific Journals
0.5% to 3-5%?
PCT
~ 350/year – 2,100 to 3,500/year
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19. KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMIES
10.1%
45.3%
4.5%
19.0%
6.2%
27.0%
5.6%
17.1%
113.5%
355.6%
13.7%
66.8%
6.1%
19.2%
0.0%
0.1%
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20. STRATEGIC POSITIONING
IN WHICH LEAGUE DO WE WANT TO PLAY?
South Africa In
2026 (20 yrs)
A 5 x increase to present situation
Country
Factor
China??
X 0.34
India??
X 0.44
Brazil
X 1.9
Taiwan
X 2.3
Japan
X 4.9
USA
X 6.1
South Korea
X 6.8 UK
X 8.2
Australia
X 9.7
South Africa In
2026 (20yrs)
A 10 x increase to future situation
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21. POINTS OF LEVERAGE FROM CURRENT SITUATION
< 10% proceed from a basic degree to pursue honours
2. Only 19% proceed from Maters to Doctoral studies 1 2
HG Maths and
Science ~ per yr
Existing
National SET
pipeline (2005)
SET graduation rates ~per yr
Hons grad rates~ per yr
Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework)
PhD’s ~
per yr
26,000
33,500
3,200
2,900
561
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22. The Ph.D Pipeline…All Disciplines: (Catching up with current levels)
Existing
National HC
pipeline (2005)
Senior certificate with endorsement
HE graduation rates ~per yr
Hons grad rates~ per yr
Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework)
PhD’s ~
per yr
86,500
120,400
23,000
8,000
1,200
Strategic Destination
432,500
602,000
115,000
40,000
6,000
Required
National and
HC pipeline (2025)
X 5.0 increase
Senior certificate with endorsement ~ per year
HE graduation rates ~ per year
Hons graduation rates ~ per year
Masters graduation rates ~ per year
PhD’s
per year
29-Apr-19

23. The Ph.D Pipeline…All Disciplines (Keeping up competitively Scenario)
Existing
National HC
pipeline (2005)
Senior certificate with endorsement
HE graduation rates ~per yr
Hons grad rates~ per yr
Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework)
PhD’s ~
per yr
86,500
120,400
23,000
8,000
1,200
Strategic Destination
Required
National and
HC pipeline (2025)
X 10 increase
Senior certificate with endorsement ~ per year
HE graduation rates ~ per year
Hons graduation rates ~ per year
Masters graduation rates ~ per year
PhD’s
per year
865,000
1,204,000
230,000
80,000
12,000
29-Apr-19

24. Strategic Destination
The Science, Engineering and Technology Ph.D Pipeline… (Catching up with current levels)
26,000
33,500
3,200
2,900
561
Existing
National SET
pipeline (2005)
Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework)
Hons grad rates~ per yr
PhD’s ~
per yr
HG Maths and
Science ~ per yr
SET graduation rates ~per yr
Strategic Destination
Required
National and
SET target
pipeline (2025)
X 5.0 increase
Senior certificate with HG Maths and
Science ~ per year
HE SET graduation rates ~ per year
Hons graduation rates ~ per year
Masters graduation rates ~ per year
PhD’s
per year
130,000
167,000
16,000
14,500
2,805
SET Ph.Ds Produced = 50% Total Ph.D Production!
29-Apr-19

25. Strategic Destination
The Science, Engineering and Technology Ph.D Pipeline: (Keeping up competitively Scenario)
HG Maths and
Science ~ per yr
Existing
National SET
pipeline (2005)
SET graduation rates ~per yr
Hons grad rates~ per yr
Masters ~ per yr (incl. coursework)
PhD’s ~
per yr
26,000
33,500
3,200
2,900
561
Strategic Destination
260,000
335,000
32,000
29,000
5,610
Required
National and
SET target
pipeline (2025)
X 10 increase
Senior certificate with HG Maths and
Science ~ per year
HE SET graduation rates ~ per year
Hons graduation rates ~ per year
Masters graduation rates ~ per year
PhD’s
per year
29-Apr-19
SET Ph.Ds Produced = ~50% Total Ph.D Production!

26. INTERVENTIONS
Increasing access to M + D study – comparative funding levels
3rd YR to Honours transition
Opportunities for post-doctoral fellowships
Beef-up Current programs:
South African Research Chairs Initiative
Professional Development program
Post-doctoral Fellowship program
International Ph.D training program
New research areas
Leverage external capacity
International visiting Research Chairs
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27. MONITORING AND EVALUATION
Key indicators
No and throughput of SET graduates per annum
No and throughput of SET Masters graduates per annum
No and throughput of SET Ph.D graduates per annum
Women and blacks as percentage of total researchers
Global share of research outputs
R & D spending as % of GDP
29-Apr-19

28. ISSUES TO INTERROGATE
Distribution of scientists, engineers and technologists
Distribution of natural and physical sciences and Human/Social sciences
Nature of the disciplines in SET:
National R&D Strategy
10 Year Plan for the S&T System
Consultation with engineering and scientific communities/associations
Foresight studies and technology road maps
Mega projects and Challenges
Competitive funding/stipends at post- graduate level including post-doctoral research
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29. TIMELINES…2007 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Strong partnership
with
NRF and DoE
from the
onset
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Draft SET HC Strategy/Plan
Internal Discussions on the
draft and strategic issues
Consultation with
Science Councils
Consultation with HEI,
HESA, Engineering Council,
NACI
Final Draft
29-Apr-19

30. THANK YOU
29-Apr-19