1. Institute for Security Studies Criminal Justice Monitoring Service
Safety and Security Portfolio Committee
5 June 2002
Welcome to LAUNCH of service that ISS will be providing

2. Briefing outline Overview of latest crime trends in South Africa
How the risk of becoming a victim of crime varies
Causes of crime and likely future crime trends

3. Murder rates in selected countries, 1998 Interpol
Minister said on Monday - “cannot be said that SA is world crime capital” - but murder most reliable stat to compare across countries - and SA still way above most others that report to Interpol.

4. Murder rate in selected cities, 1999, SAPS & UK Home Office

5. % crimes reported to the police, 1998 national victim survey

6. Number of recorded crimes, by category, Jan-Sept 1994-2001

7. Changing crime rates, Jan-Sep 1994-2001
SAPS angle is on ‘stabilisation’ - result of Crackdown (Ted to cover more)
Is a dip in 2001 from but increase from real concern.

8. Change in number of recorded crimes, Jan-Sep 1994-2001

9. Change in provincial murder rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

10. Change in provincial murder rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

11. Change in provincial murder rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

12. Change in provincial aggravated robbery rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

13. Change in provincial aggravated robbery rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

14. Change in provincial aggravated robbery rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

15. Change in provincial burglary rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

16. Change in provincial burglary rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

17. Change in provincial burglary rates, Jan-Sep 1994-01

18. The risk of becoming a victim of crime varies according to:
Income
Age
Social environment - acquaintances, friends & family
Where you live & work
Similar to other countries

20. % individuals experiencing crime, by age (1997)

21. % of victims who knew the offender

22. Number of recorded murders per month, 1994-99

23. Number of recorded assaults per month, 1994-99

24. Crime rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

25. Murder rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

26. Aggravated robbery rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

27. Rape rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

28. Burglary rates in the provinces, Jan-Sept 2001

29. WEST
TOTAL - 68
Nyanga - 135
Langa - 131
Gug - 127
Hout Bay 63
Claremont - 22
Rondebosch - 6
White men - suicide

30. CT Burglary
TOTAL
MOWBRAY
CLAREMONT
CAMPS BAY
CT CENTRAL
RONDEBOSCH
GUGS - 239
NYANGA - 301

31. Reasons for high crime levels & future scenarios
Period of transition
Cycles of violence
Proliferation of firearms
Organised crime
Rapid urbanisation & income inequality
Youthful population
Weak criminal justice system

32. Conviction rate (all offences) per 100,000 of the population, 1995/96

33. Age distribution, South Africa (1996)

35. No. of SAPS officers and violent crimes, 1996-2000

36. No. of prosecutions, convictions, referrals and crimes recorded

37. Number of DCS personnel and prisoners, 1994-2000
Staff and cell accomm - reflects resources for DCS
Prisoners - reflects Workload :
Since 1995 the increase in the prison population has been much greater than the increase in the resources to hold and manage the prisoners.
This in turn, will negatively effect performance of DCS - overcrowding impacts on the effective supervision, management and monitoring of prisoners.

38. Future crime scenario: Positive developments
More effective criminal justice system, dependant on:
Communication
Credibility
Capacity
Focus of law enforcement & legislation on organised crime
Transitional period ending
Slowdown in urbanisation rate

39. Future crime scenario: Unknown
Proliferation of firearms
Firearms Control Act
Developments in Angola and DRC
Eastward NATO expansion

40. Future crime scenario: Negative developments
Cycles of violence
Changing age demographics
Effect of HIV/AIDS epidemic

41. Number of AIDS orphans (millions) in SA, 1998-2010

42. Conclusion
Decline of crime where impact of criminal justice system is strong
Continued high level of crimes driven by ‘culture of violence’
Increase in certain crimes because of HIV/AIDS epidemic
Greater state, private sector and civil society partnership needed

43. Thank you! Institute for Security Studies http://www.iss.co.za
Sources used:
Interpol
SAPS CIAC
Stats SA national Victims of Crime Survey, 1999