1. Evaluation network MS - DG REGIO 14th April 2011, Kai Stryczynski
Monitoring & evaluation after 2013 – Concepts and ideas, sections 1+2 (concepts)
Evaluation network MS - DG REGIO
14th April 2011, Kai Stryczynski

2. Why this paper?
Wrapping up some key ideas discussed in past few years on M+E
Step towards single REGIO guidance paper for 2014
Time for discussion and preparation

3. What do you want to change?
Programme priorities should clarify what they want to change -
what concern is driving your intervention?
Express the precise dimension of change by a result (outcome) indicator
Clear expression of desired change is precondition for later M + E –
cannot be fixed later on.

4. How do you want to change things?
Put on paper what factors you think are likely to affect your result indicator – and how
Select the factor(s) the public programme should influence – what would the programme produce?
You have found your output indicator and described an intervention logic

5. Monitoring: what can be observed.
Can outputs be observed?
Yes! Output monitoring.
Can changes in result indicators – driven by many factors - be observed?
Yes! Surveys, statistics, expert judgement,...
Can the share of factors contributing to the result indicator be observed?
No! Only their sum is observable.

6. Evaluation: an inquiry into the non-observable
Distinguishing the contribution of the programme – the impact – from the effect of other factors.
Theory-based evaluations inquire the mechanisms that make a contribution of the programme happen.
Counterfactual evaluations put a number on the contribution of the programme to the change.

7. Combine approaches and mix methods
Both types of impact evaluation answer complementary questions – so combine them.
Any inquiry delivers hints and partial answers – look at problems with different methods for a safe judgement.

8. After and beyond this paper
Please comment on Concepts and Ideas
(end of May)
Change into draft REGIO guidance paper after publication of legislative proposals (July)
EVALSED: methods for evaluation – continuing update