1. contact: Kapros@central.ntua.gr
Third stakeholder meeting on CAFE Baseline 30 April Issues related to the energy baseline
Dr. L. Mantzos, M. Zeka-Paschou
E3M-Lab at the National Technical University of Athens
contact:
E3MLab - ICCS/NTUA

2. Key factors affecting the evolution of the energy system
Base year (2000) statistics
Model calibrated on the basis of these statistics
EUROSTAT energy balances as available in end 2002 currently used
Demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
Population and households size
GDP growth and structural changes of the economy
International fuel prices
Changes in the demand side
Structural changes (e.g. industrial production by sector, transport activity)
Changes in the fuel mix
Power generation
Nuclear policies
Renewable energy forms
Imports/exports of electricity

3. Base year (2000) statistics
Comments received by many Member States
Are the figures indicated the same as the latest version available in the New Cronos database of EUROSTAT?
If not what approach should be retained?
Revision of base year statistics implies the construction of a new baseline
Time consuming process
Suggested approach on dealing with the issue
ICCS/NTUA can provide a template to be filled in by Member States with their own statistics
A cross-checking against PRIMES data will be performed to identify the importance of differences
ICCS/NTUA will consult with Commission services to decide the next steps

4. Comments on demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
Demographic assumptions
Sources used: New Cronos database, UN-HABITAT
Allows for a consistent outlook
Macroeconomic assumptions
Scenario on GDP growth reflects a sustainable pathway for the European Economy and a gradual convergence of the EU economies
Structural changes of the economy reflect current trends towards de-materialisation
Suggested approach on dealing with the issue
ICCS/NTUA will provide a template to be filled in by Member States with their own assumptions
ICCS/NTUA will check differences in assumptions and their impacts both at the country specific levels and the EU wide level
After consultation with Commission services new macroeconomic assumptions will be implemented in the revised baseline

5. International fuel prices
World energy outlook (POLES model results)
scenario constructed in the context of the LREM Framework contract assumes
Continuation of current world energy market structures
Conventional view on fossil fuel reserves / abundant resources in the horizon to 2030
It is suggested that a uniform scenario is used for world energy prices
If required by Commission services a different international fuel prices scenario can be introduced in the analysis

6. Changes in the demand side
Structural changes
Need to be in line with the corresponding macroeconomic assumptions
ICCS/NTUA will provide a template to be filled in by Member States with their own assumptions/projections (optional but useful for consistency reasons)
Member states comments will be incorporated in the revised baseline scenario after consultation with Commission services
Comparison to other studies (e.g. TREMOVE model baseline) is also envisaged
Changes in the fuel mix
ICCS/NTUA will try to identify the reasons for differences
Different rates of penetration of electric appliances
Infrastructure issues etc.
The baseline will be revised to take into account the Member States comments

7. Power generation Nuclear policies Renewable energy forms
Any revisions on nuclear phase-out policies will be incorporated
Needs to be decided whether constraints will be introduced on nuclear capacity expansion or investment choices will be made on economic grounds
Renewable energy forms
Member States comments will be taken into account after consultation with Commission services
The baseline does not assume the full implementation of the renewables directive
It, however, incorporates all policies in place by the end of 2001
Electricity imports/exports
Member States comments will be checked both at the country level and the EU wide level for consistency purposes
The revised baseline will incorporate these comments to the extent possible
It is suggested that all Member States provide their own projections on electricity imports and exports
Changes in the fuel mix
Comments will be taken into account after consultation with Commission services

8. What will be implemented in the revised baseline
Base year (2000) statistics
Time limitations do not make it feasible
However, if revised energy balances are available within the next month a comparison can be prepared
Possible implementation in the NEC directive revision
Demographic and macroeconomic assumptions
Feasible for the revised baseline
Need to receive the template with assumptions until May 15
Consistency check at the EU wide level to be performed before implementation
International fuel prices
To remain unchanged
Changes in the demand side
Most of the comments on structural changes will be incorporated
Effort will be made to accommodate for different projections as regards demand for fuels
Power generation
ICCS/NTUA will take into account comments in the revised baseline