1. Economic Update June 2017 Derek Harvey
Senior Account Executive, Middle Markets

2. Summary & GDP 1st Qtr. GDP: +1.2% (Second Estimate)
The Numbers: May Jobs Report (Wall Street Journal)
138,000: The economy added a net 138,000 jobs in May, down from recent trends but steady enough to chip away at unemployment. Meanwhile, job growth was far weaker in March and April than previously thought. The economy has created an average of 121,000 jobs over the past three months, roughly two- thirds of last year’s average monthly job growth.
4.3%: The unemployment rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 4.3%, the lowest level since May However, the drop reflecting troubling trends. The labor force contracted sharply. The drop could suggest that the labor market is at or above full employment. Fed officials project the jobless rate will average 4.7% to 5% over the long run.
62.7%: The share of Americans holding jobs or actively looking for them fell two-tenths of a percentage point to 62.7%, just a tick above the level from a year ago and hovering near four-decade lows. In the most worrisome aspect of Friday’s report, the number of Americans in the labor force fell by 429,000. That suggests that many Americans in their prime working years remain on the sidelines, despite expectations they would rejoin the market as conditions improved.
2.5%: Private-sector workers saw their paychecks grow 2.5%, on average, in the year through May. That reflects consistent but hardly robust growth in Americans’ incomes. With inflation recently slowing, the growth in paychecks will give a real boost to the amount of money Americans have in their pockets to spend.
8.4%: A broader measure of unemployment fell to 8.4% in May from 8.6% in April. That rate—formally known as the “U-6″—counts not just unemployed workers in the labor force but also Americans too discouraged to enter the job search and part-time workers who would prefer to work full time. The rate has fallen more than a percentage point over the last year.
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis

3. US Employment Situation
Temp Penetration Rate: % unchanged
Job Loss/Gain: ,000 Jobs
Unemployment Rate: % % I
Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment
Temp Employment
Temporary help services Added 12,900 jobs.
Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?
“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.” American Staffing Association
Job Gains
Change from
Previous Month
Professional & Business Services
38,000
Leisure and Hospitality
31,000
Financial Activities
11,000
Construction
Education & Health Services
47,000
- Healthcare
24,300
- Education
14,700
- Social Assistance
8,000
Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details
Jobs Added/Lost
Private Sector
147,000
Government Sector
-9,000
Total
138,000
Job Losses
Change from
Previous Month
Government
-9,000
Retail Trade
-6,100
Manufacturing
-1,000
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Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association

4. Projections, Trends & Wages
GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
Unemployment Rate Projections
Survey of Economist (Wall Street Journal)
Out of Work (Alternative Measures of Unemployment) Alternate measures of the unemployment and under employment rate
Getting Paid
Wages, Change from a year earlier /
Source: Wall Street Journal Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report,
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