1. Crop Market Outlook Returning to the Farm Seminar Ames, Iowa
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
92.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
165.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,447
12,360
10,780
13,925
13,985
Beg. Stocks
1,708
1,128
989
821
1,481
Imports 28 29
162 35 25
Total Supply
14,182
13,517
11,932
14,781
15,491
Feed & Residual
4,795
4,557
4,335
5,300
5,400
Ethanol
5,019
5,000
4,648
Food, Seed, & Other
1,407
1,428
1,396
1,400
1,430
Exports
1,834
1,543
731
1,600
1,550
Total Use
13,055
12,528
11,111
13,300
13,380
Ending Stocks
2,111
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.50
3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB for 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.4
75.0
77.2
76.5
79.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
43.5
41.9
39.8
43.3
45.2
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,329
3,094
3,034
3,289
3,550
Beg. Stocks
151
215
169
141
150
Imports 14 16 36 30 15
Total Supply
3,495
3,325
3,239
3,459
3,715
Crush
1,648
1,703
1,689
1,700
1,725
Seed & Residual
130 88 90 99
105
Exports
1,501
1,365
1,320
1,510
1,600
Total Use
3,280
3,155
3,099
3,309
3,430
Ending Stocks
285
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
11.30
12.50
14.40
12.70
9.65
Source: USDA-WAOB for 3 3

4. Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

9. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

17. Current Corn Futures
4.67
4.68
4.60
Source: CME Group, 3/6/2014

18. Current Soybean Futures
13.08
11.53
10.95
Source: CME Group, 3/6/2014

19. Corn Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

20. Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre
Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

21. 2013/14 Crop Prices

22. 2014/15 Crop Margins

23. Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

24. 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

25. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook
Source: NOAA-CPC

26. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good
Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?
Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term
2013/14
USDA
2014/15
Unofficial
Futures
(3/6/14)
Corn
$4.50
$3.90
$4.67
$4.68
Soybeans
$12.70
$9.65
$13.08
$11.53

27. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 27 27

28. Arable Land

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: