2. WP1: Fire Statistics: Introduction and Status
Oriol RIOS, CERN
20-Jun-17
O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

3. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
WP1 Breakdown
WP1: 3 main pillars:
Gather data-> extract information
20-Jun-17
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4. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
WP1 Package break down
SUB-PACKAGE
DESCRIPTION
STATUS
Involved RU
WP1.1 Laboratory-wide overviews.
Overview on fire incidents generated by each collaborating particle physics laboratory based on their individual databases. Where no or little data is present, please provide some on your regional fire department or service
Data Collected*
Processing
ALL
WP1.2 OECD study transfer
Review of the OECD study in terms of transfer from nuclear plants to particle laboratories for the parts that could be applied to particle accelerator facilities, e.g. fire probabilities for technical supply rooms or similar
Study Done Reporting
ESS CERN
WP1.3 Methodology of surveying and discussion
Survey of methodologies, based on literature, guidelines or already implemented procedures; discussion and decision which one to employ towards a joint approach
Gathered
Discussion
WP1.4 Shared approach on data collection and processing
Collection of data sets from all collaborators, setup of and merge of data in one database, preliminary results and discussion
Define DB structure
CERN FNAL ESS MIV
WP1.5 Draft report and final discussions
Discussion and interpretation of the current results, wrap-up for final report on the deliverables ESS-PR-1 and MIV-PR-1.
WP1.1: Data Collecting!. James Priest Talk on DOE
20-Jun-17
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5. WP1.1 Laboratory-wide overviews. Data gathered and processing
20-Jun-17
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6. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
Data Gathered RU
Status
Comments
ESS
not available
FERMILAB
Events by type FNAL
+ and DOE Fire Loss
DESY
Events by type
Some FB reports
MAX IV
Some events:
CERN
Some events:
Soon full FB reports
MAX IV incomplete list
Desy to provide more reports! They were working on it!
20-Jun-17
O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

7. CERN. Reported Fire Events
Costs?
Source: CERN Fire Accidents: EDMS: /1
20-Jun-17
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8. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
FERMILAB. From FB report ( )
Natural Gas (leak, odour)  Near miss?
Fire
Source: FireRunReport xlsx Jim Niehoff and James Priest
20-Jun-17
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9. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
FERMILAB. From FB report ( )
Response Time: From alarm reported to FF at place. Manually reported
863 events
FB Response Time
Source: FireRunReport xlsx Jim Niehoff and James Priest
20-Jun-17
O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

10. FERMILAB. Yearly Fire Loss Cost
Causes?
Equipment getting old?
Change in reporting system?
Source: DOE Fire Loss Reports. Jim Niehoff and James Priest
20-Jun-17
O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

11. Histogram of Fire Loss Cost (1991-2017)
Long-tail events
Source: Jim Niehoff and James Priest
20-Jun-17
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12. Cumulative Fire Loss Cost (1991-2017)
Source: Jim Niehoff and James Priest
20-Jun-17
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13. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
WP1.2 OECD study transfer
20-Jun-17
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14. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
Study presented: EDMS No v.1
Event tree structure
Proposed Probabilistic method
Example of application
20-Jun-17
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15. WP1.3 Methodology of surveying and discussion
20-Jun-17
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16. Different Methodologies presented
Sweden National System
Dadi, ITSF Hamburg 2016
ESS proposal.
Fredrik Jorud. ESS 2016
James Priest talk in the following on DOE strategy
CERN current methodology
Marco Andreini,
CERN 2015
20-Jun-17
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17. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
Open Discussions
WP1.3 Methodology of surveying
WP1.4 Shared approach on data collection and processing
20-Jun-17
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18. WP1 Deliverables CODE TITLE STATUS Principal RU MIV-PR-1.1
Approach  on  Fire  Statistics  for  Accelerator  Facilities
MAX IV
ESS-IO-1.1
Framework on fire statistics in accelerator facilities
ESS
RU: Research Unit
20-Jun-17
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19. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
20-Jun-17
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20. WP2 – FRPAM Probabilistic Model for Manual Fire Fighting Time
Marco Andreini – Oriol Rios – Art Arnalich
20-Jun-17
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21. Probabilistic Model for Manual Fire Fighting Time
Building on the general formulation in Gardoni et al (2002), the probabilistic models are written in the following form
knockdown time
from the model
Where:
x is a vector of material and geometric properties, HRR, etc.
knockdown time
from experimental tests
is the set of unknown model parameters,
is the model error in which σ is the standard deviation of the model error, ε is a random variable with zero mean and unit variance.
Gardoni P, Der Kiureghian A, Mosalam K M. (2002). Probabilistic Capacity Models and Fragility Estimates for Reinforced Concrete Columns based on Experimental Observations. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 128(10), 1024–1038. doi: /(ASCE) (2002)128:10(1024)
20-Jun-17
O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:

22. Manual Fire Fighting Time Model
Where:
is the limit for fire fighting
is the parameter accounting for the “fire knockdown efficiency”
is the instantaneous Heat Release Rate
20-Jun-17
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23. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination
Prior distribution
Considering a non informative prior distribution for the parameter
and referring to Box ad Tiao (1992), it is possible to proof that it is locally uniform,
thus we obtain that
while, following Gardoni et al. (2002a), for
we adopt
so that the prior distribution assumes the form
We consider
having mean = 20 MW and C.o.V. = 0.20
20-Jun-17
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24. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination
From Prior to Posterior Distribution
Applying the Bayes theorem we have
Where c is a normalizing factor equal to
and L(Θ) is the likelihood function that can be expressed by
20-Jun-17
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25. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination
Importance sampling density
Criterion for terminating simulation
20-Jun-17
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26. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination – Parallel CPUs Computing
20-Jun-17
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27. Correlation Coefficients
Calibrated Model Posterior statistics determination – Results
θHRRcr [MW]
θα [s]
σ [s]
Posterior Mean
23.658
0.234
Posterior SD
3.69
0.26
0.13
Correlation Coefficients θα
0.99 σ
-0.07
20-Jun-17
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28. O.Rios - FCC Workshop at ESS - EDMS no:
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