1. © 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com/Trends

2. © 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com/Trends
Opt-in Survey of Trends e-Newsletter Readers
39 Completed Surveys
Questions Asked:
Does your forecast process include generating an initial forecast (e.g., baseline forecast) using some type of quantitative method or approach?
Do you or others subsequently judgmentally adjust the quantitative forecast, and (if yes) which departments within your organization are authorized to make adjustments?
On average, what percentage of the quantitative forecasts are judgmentally adjusted?
Do you have a formalized process for judgmental forecast adjustments?
Do you track forecast accuracy or error, and (if yes) which “versions” of the forecast do you track ?
(Multiple responses were allowed for questions 2 and 5)
Original Survey and Trends Archive Available at:
© 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc

3. © 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com/Trends
The survey supports the notion that it is common practice among business forecasters is to start with a quantitative (objective) forecast and then add business or domain knowledge.
© 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc

4. © 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com/Trends
One-third of those who report that the quantitative forecast is adjusted aren’t sure as to the extent
© 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc

5. © 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com/Trends
Of those who do report a percentage of forecasts adjusted, half report that ten percent or less of the forecasts are adjusted.
© 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc

6. © 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com/Trends

7. © 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com/Trends
While a very large majority of the respondents report that they track forecast accuracy or error, a minority have formal processes for making judgmental adjustments.
© 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc

8. © 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com/Trends
With accuracy or error tracking, the focus is on the final forecast rather than on the forecast as it evolves or develops. This makes it difficult to determine when and where judgment adds value.
© 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc

9. Additional Resources www.forecasting-summit.com
Twice-per-year forecasting conference offering forecasting education, practitioner case studies and applied research in forecasting
Web Site for Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting
The University of Tennessees Sales Forecasting Management Forum’s On-Line Library: Downloadable PDFs of Articles and Papers on a Wide Range of Forecasting Topics
International Institute of Forecasters Web Site
© 2008, Business Forecast Systems, Inc